Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
948 FXUS64 KEPZ 291155 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 555 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Dry and hot weather will continue for the rest of this week and into much of next week as dry west to southwest flow aloft persists. Occasional brief moisture incursions will occur over Otero and Hudspeth Counties but likely too brief for any chance of rain. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with the lowlands flirting with triple digits each day into mid-week of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Current look at the weather scene shows upper ridge from the Big Bend northward along east slopes of the front range. At the surface the dry-line reinforced by storm outflow from the Texas Panhandle storms continues to move toward our CWA. IR satellite and surface obs show the leading edge of the dry-line now into the Tularosa Basin down through northeast Hudspeth County and southward across far eastern Hudspeth. HRRR shows this boundary infiltrating into the Rio Grande Valley by around 12Z and perhaps as far as the Cont Divide by around noon before the west winds kick in and erode the moisture all the way back to the far eastern CWA by late this afternoon. Did put some low token POPs in for the eastern CWA this afternoon but thats about it. This should bring a brief relief to the elevated fire conditions in the Sacs today. Not much change for the rest of the week into the first half of next week as dry west flow aloft continues. Breezy afternoons each day through the forecast period, with temperatures remaining well above normal. Upper trough over the Pac NW will sweep across the northern Rockies today and Thursday with the tail end dragging across New Mexico. This will produce a slightly lower temperature of the atmosphere, so highs today through Friday a few degrees lower. That said, the sub-tropical high over Mexico will very slowly build northward Saturday into next week. Increasing heights and h85 temps show lowlands likely back into the triple digits from Saturday through Tuesday. 90th percentile NBM highs show triple digits for the large majority of the lowlands, with highs in the RG Valley from El Paso down of 103-106 deg. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the period with SCT-BKN250. Over the Sac Mtns...BKN-OVC030 isolated drizzle/light rain. Clouds mostly disspated by around 22Z. Surface wind...Rio Grande Valley east...east/southeast 7-12 knots becoming southwest 12-15G25 knots after 20Z. West Rio Grande Valley...southwest winds AOB 8 knots becoming west/southwest 12-15G25 knots after 18Z. Winds all areas diminishing to west/northwest AOB 8 knots after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall, not a lot of change in fire weather, with conditions remaining mostly elevated to near-critical through Sunday. The Sac Mtn zone will see some temporary relief from the low humidity this morning and again Friday and Saturday as the dry-line briefly moves in each of these days. With the exception of the Sac zone, overnight humidity recovery will continue to be poor. Breezy west winds continuing each day and despite these brief incursions of moisture, little to no chance of rain is expected. Min RHs: Lowlands around 5% west of RG Valley today and 12% east of the Valley; then 4-8% through Sunday. Mountains around 6% Gila and 15% Sacs today; then 6-12% through Sunday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 67 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 61 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 97 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 94 55 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 74 43 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 94 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 85 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 95 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 93 55 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 96 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 97 56 97 54 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 99 59 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 89 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 98 62 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 58 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 95 59 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 94 49 94 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 96 51 96 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 95 61 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 93 53 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 85 48 85 46 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 84 46 83 46 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 82 46 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 87 50 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 92 55 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 93 49 93 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 86 47 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 90 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 93 40 93 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 88 37 88 37 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 89 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 93 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 93 56 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 93 55 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 87 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner