357
FXUS64 KEPZ 232042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Our very dry and warm weather will continue over the holiday
weekend and into most of next week. Breezy afternoon winds will
continue each day through Sunday, with elevated fire conditions
continuing. Saturday looks to be the windiest day of the bunch, so
fire conditions will likely rise to critical. By Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week, high pressure builds in over much of
our area, giving us our first possible heat wave. Triple digit
temperatures are possible across the desert areas from Tuesday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Currently WV imagery shows very dry southwest flow aloft
continuing over the CWA. Main upper low now over Wyoming with weak
detached trough moving across the southern CWA. At the surface,
dry-line which had butted up against the Sacs yesterday began
drifting east again-just east of Roswell-Carlsbad line this
morning and is now back into the Texas Panhandle. No sight to the
end of this streak, as breezy afternoons continue each day through
Sunday. This will keep fire conditions elevated, with Saturday
looking the windiest day. Hence expect critical fire conditions
and the Fire Watch will likely be updated to Red Flag Warning
soon.

Winds diminish some after Sunday, but high pressure aloft over
central America builds northward over Mexico and the CWA. Thus we
could very well begin a heat wave Tuesday into next weekend. NBM
MOS high temps show 98 to 99. If you look at the 90 and 95
percentile numbers--at El Paso it increases to 104 to 106. So
triple digits are likely across the lowlands much of next week.
Models continue to show dry-line teasing the far eastern margins
of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, but intrusions only brief and
likely not impactful. Fortunately, for fire concerns, no
significant winds are expected during this heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
west 15-20G30 knots, diminishing after 04Z to west/southwest 7-10
knots. Few areas of blowing dust possible from 20Z-01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Fire concerns remain elevated through Sunday, with Saturday the
windiest and likely needing a Watch upgrade to RFW. Winds Monday
and beyond diminishing some, but temperatures heat up so fire
conditions likely remaining elevated.

Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Tuesday. Mountains 7-12% through
Tuesday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  89  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               56  92  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  81  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                52  89  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                55  93  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  95  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   59  94  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  90  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    51  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 52  91  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  77  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  44  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                50  88  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                49  89  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  83  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   45  85  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    39  88  36  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               35  83  33  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   50  89  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  52  90  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           51  90  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner