Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
811 FXUS64 KEPZ 151719 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Sub-tropical moisture will persist over the area through Tuesday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will be north and west of Las Cruces today and again Monday, with the rain chances spreading east across the Rio Grande Valley Monday night. The moisture begins receding east on Tuesday, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will exist east of the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the work week into the the weekend will remain dry but temperatures will drop to just above normal levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 WV imagery shows ex TS Ileana now dissipated over Mexican Chihuahuan Desert with her moisture mostly over southern and eastern Texas. A modest portion of moisture that was north of Ileana remains in place over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. This moisture will continue to fuel rain chances over the next 2-3 days. Meanwhile, strong Pacific upper low has moved over Vancouver Island and will continue to dig south and deepen slightly, being located over northern California tonight. For today and Monday...southwest flow ahead of the upper low will produce series of weak short waves that traverse across New Mexico and help to kick off showers/thunderstorms through tonight with remnant moisture. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF and several hi-res models all in good agreement keeping POPs mainly north and west of Las Cruces this afternoon and night where instability and best synoptic forcing are. Overnight showers may persist but mostly west of Deming. On Monday with the upper low moving over the Great Basin, moisture will begin to spread east. Showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley in the morning/afternoon but by late afternoon or early evening the chances of rain should spread east over most of remainder of CWA. Slow warming at mid levels will not help lapse rates, but models still showing decent DCAPE values and dewpoint depressions today and Monday for some strong wind gust threat. PWs well above normal suggest some heavy rain/flood potential. Storm motion relatively slow today could aid in some flooding, with the Gila/Black Range the main worry. Storm motion increases Monday so flood threat less likely. Temperatures will remain well above normal. Tuesday...upper low over Great Basin begins lifting out over the northern Rockies with main trough rotating across New Mexico and forcing the remaining moisture east. Look for some morning showers still possible in the west, but then the chance of showers/thunderstorms will move to the Rio Grande Valley early afternoon and then the far eastern CWA by late afternoon. Wednesday and beyond...drier air moving in will reform dry-line just east of the CWA. Models show typical undulating dance of the dry-line just east of the CWA through Friday. Westward protrusions could aid in a few showers over the far eastern CWA, but left out any mention of this for now. Second upper low rapidly digs south down the west coast and to near the Four Corners Friday. This upper low and trough will bring drier air into CWA and kick the dry-line further east through Sunday. High temperatures will fall to near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 P6SM SCT-BKN090-110 with isolated to scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 mainly west and north of Deming. Think best chance for storms at any of the terminals is KTCS where VCTS is mentioned. Isolated showers will continue through the night near the AZ border while skies in the far southeast become SKC-FEW100. Winds generally south to southeast 5-15KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Some sub-tropical moisture persisting across the fire zones through Tuesday. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/tonight mostly north and west of Las Cruces. More showers/thunderstorms Monday slowly spreading east across most of the zones. Strong and erratic winds possible near these storms. Temperatures remaining above normal. Drying out Wednesday into the weekend, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. Breezy afternoons Thursday and Friday could lead to some elevated fire conditions, mainly lower elevations. Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% through Tuesday dropping to 15-20% Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 30-45% through Tuesday dropping to 20-30% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates good-very good today and Monday, then very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 94 70 94 / 10 10 30 20 Sierra Blanca 62 90 63 88 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 64 91 65 91 / 10 20 30 10 Alamogordo 62 89 63 89 / 20 20 30 30 Cloudcroft 46 69 47 70 / 20 30 30 60 Truth or Consequences 62 88 65 88 / 20 20 20 10 Silver City 62 81 63 80 / 30 40 30 20 Deming 63 88 64 90 / 20 30 30 10 Lordsburg 64 82 63 86 / 30 40 30 10 West El Paso Metro 68 92 70 91 / 10 10 30 20 Dell City 60 93 62 93 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 63 95 64 94 / 10 10 20 20 Loma Linda 64 87 65 86 / 10 10 20 20 Fabens 64 94 65 92 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Teresa 66 91 67 89 / 10 20 30 10 White Sands HQ 65 91 66 90 / 10 10 30 20 Jornada Range 61 91 64 88 / 20 20 30 20 Hatch 63 93 64 90 / 20 20 30 10 Columbus 66 88 67 90 / 20 30 30 10 Orogrande 66 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 20 Mayhill 51 82 52 83 / 20 30 20 50 Mescalero 50 84 51 81 / 20 30 30 60 Timberon 49 80 50 78 / 20 20 20 40 Winston 51 80 53 82 / 20 40 20 20 Hillsboro 58 85 63 87 / 20 40 30 20 Spaceport 58 88 62 88 / 20 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 50 81 51 80 / 30 60 30 20 Hurley 58 84 59 84 / 20 40 30 10 Cliff 57 83 57 86 / 30 50 30 20 Mule Creek 53 81 53 80 / 30 40 30 10 Faywood 59 85 60 84 / 20 40 30 10 Animas 66 84 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 Hachita 63 88 64 87 / 20 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 62 84 63 88 / 20 30 20 0 Cloverdale 59 79 60 82 / 20 30 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz