Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
310
FNUS74 KEPZ 162218
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Blue 2 Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
418 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry southwest flow will persist through Tuesday. Continued very warm
with low humidity (around 10%). Breezy in the afternoons, with poor
overnight recovery. Thus fire conditions remaining near critical.
Significant wind shift to east/southeast Wednesday night with large
increase in moisture Thursday and Friday. Temperatures much cooler
Thursday and Friday.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 31
mph.
Mixing height.......10100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph increasing to 22 to 25
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80800 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(208400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 4 3 5 5 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 69 79 83 84 84
RH..............20 19 14 13 12 11
20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 11 SW 11 SW 12
20 ft wind gust.12 12 21 29 29 31
Mix hgt (ft)....6700 6700 10100 10100 9800 9800
Transport wind..SW 8 SW 8 SW 22 SW 22 SW 25 SW 25
Haines index....6 5 5 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..81 81 208 208 210 210
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 31 mph
decreasing to 21 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 25 mph shifting to the west
around 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (195000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(9200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........10 10 11 8 8 5
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............84 78 70 67 63 60
RH..............10 11 14 15 17 19
20 ft wind......SW 12 SW 12 SW 10 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8
20 ft wind gust.31 31 25 21 21 20
Mix hgt (ft)....8100 8100 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..SW 25 SW 25 SW 18 SW 18 W 13 W 13
Haines index....6 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..195 195 11 11 9 9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (134000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........4 4 5 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............59 70 79 82
RH..............20 17 14 10
20 FT wind......SW 7G18 SW 9G23 SW 10G26 SW 12G29
Mix hgt (ft)....5100 5100 9000 9700
Transport wind..SW 11 SW 11 SW 15 SW 16
Haines index....5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..61 61 116 134
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Max relative humidity around
25 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.JUNETEENTH...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds
around 14 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around
12 mph.
$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Thomas Goetz ICT4(t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416238.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Thomas.goetz@usda.gov