Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
033
FNUS74 KEPZ 180121
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
721 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions will remain through the evening.
Winds will slowly decrease during the overnight, becoming light and terrain/diurnal
driven in direction. Overnight recoveries of 35 to 45 percent. For Tuesday, breezy
winds of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 possible. Min RH values
will be 10 to 15 percent with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Deep
mixing will promote Very Good smoke ventilation rates. Elevated fire weather
conditions expected on Wednesday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Upper 40s to low 50s.
Max humidity........35 to 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph, becoming light during the overnight
timeframe.
Mixing height.......Heights will quickly decrease to 100 ft AGL
after sunset.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 22 mph decreasing to around 9 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (165800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(1000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........1 2 2 5 1 1
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............73 63 59 56 53 50
RH..............14 19 22 26 32 40
20 ft wind......SW 18 W 12 W 12 W 7 W 3 W 3
20 ft wind gust.40 28 28 16 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....6900 6900 100 100 100 100
Transport wind..SW 22 SW 22 W 13 W 13 W 9 W 9
Haines index....6 5 4 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..166 166 2 2 1 1
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Upper 70s to low 80s.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 30 mph with
gusts to around 25 to 30 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (32300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (124100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (146600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 1 11 11 20
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............51 60 68 74 78 80
RH..............37 29 21 17 15 13
20 ft wind......SW 3 SW 3 SW 8 SW 10 SW 12 SW 15
20 ft wind gust.10 10 18 22 22 27
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 2200 7300 7300 9200 9200
Transport wind..SW 12 SW 12 W 20 W 20 W 18 W 18
Haines index....3 3 3 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 124 124 147 147
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Upper 40s to low 50s.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
mph in the evening and overnight becoming
light.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (124900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........16 4 6 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............76 64 58 54
RH..............13 20 26 31
20 FT wind......SW 12G25 W 10G22 W 5G13 W 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....8300 8300 100 100
Transport wind..SW 16 SW 16 W 11 W 7
Haines index....6 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..125 125 1 1
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 18 mph
with gusts to around 38 mph.
Mixing height.......12700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to 21 to 24 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(232400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........3 4 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............52 70 81
RH..............35 21 13
20 FT wind......S 2G5 S 7G20 S 15G35
Mix hgt (ft)....3100 11100 12700
Transport wind..S 10 S 21 S 24
Haines index....4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 232 270
Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds around 18 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs around 80. South winds around 17 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov