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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
960 FNUS74 KEPZ 172036 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for South fork...USFS National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 236 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MDT on June 17. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this evening and Tuesday. RH levels will be between 6 to 12% for the region. Wind speeds will be at 15 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph this evening and lighter at 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday. A tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico will arrive late Wednesday which will bring cooler temperatures, extensive cloud cover, and rain chances for the region. Thunderstorms are possible with this system so lightning is a potential danger. Winds will become southeasterly. This system will diminish fire weather potential for the rest of the week. Ventilation rates will range from very good to excellent. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 89. Min humidity........9 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 18 mph with gusts to around 33 mph. Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 26 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (240700 knot-ft). Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 3 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........5 5 Weather cov.....NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 LAL.............1 1 Temp............89 88 RH..............10 9 20 ft wind......SW 18 SW 18 20 ft wind gust.33 33 Mix hgt (ft)....10900 10900 Transport wind..SW 26 SW 26 Haines index....6 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..241 241 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 57. Max humidity........27 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 32 mph decreasing to around 5 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 19 to 24 mph shifting to the west around 14 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (217200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (16500 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........9 9 7 11 11 8 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............85 75 68 64 61 58 RH..............11 14 17 19 22 25 20 ft wind......SW 16 SW 16 SW 10 W 8 W 8 SW 5 20 ft wind gust.32 32 21 15 15 12 Mix hgt (ft)....9100 9100 1200 1200 1200 1200 Transport wind..SW 24 SW 24 SW 19 SW 19 W 14 W 14 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..217 217 21 21 17 17 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 87. Min humidity........9 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58300 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (146000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........6 2 4 5 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............57 71 81 87 RH..............27 21 13 10 20 FT wind......SW 3G6 SW 7G16 SW 12G22 SW 13G24 Mix hgt (ft)....4500 4500 9200 9700 Transport wind..W 11 W 11 SW 17 SW 17 Haines index....4 4 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..58 58 138 146 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .JUNETEENTH... Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around 8 mph. .THURSDAY... Not as warm. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around 14 mph. .FRIDAY... Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 8 mph. $$ Forecaster...LANEY Requested by...Jess rue Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416299.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/17/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Jesus.rue@usda.gov