512
FNUS74 KEPZ 161651
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Antone Fie 6/14/2024...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0000 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

For the rest of today, conditions will be quiet with dry air in
place. The winds will be generally light with a few gusts.
Tonight recovery will be fair. For Monday, dry conditions will
continue. The 20ft winds will be somewhat similar to that of
today and the temperature slightly above the normal. Monday
overnight recovery will continue to be fair. The ventilation rates
today and on Monday will be excellent. For the rest of the
period, conditions will quiet on Tuesday and Wednesday with light
to breezy winds. Breezy winds will be in the afternoon. However,
there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
and Friday with increasing winds. With that said, fire weather
conditions will be near critical through Wednesday.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph with
                    gusts to around 24 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph increasing to around 25
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (63300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (142800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (195800
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      1      3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............56     64     72     78     82     83
RH..............27     23     18     13     11     11
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   SW 6   SW 10  SW 10  SW 11
20 ft wind gust.12     12     20     24     24     24
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   3500   7000   7000   8600   8600
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 14  SW 23  SW 23  SW 25  SW 25
Haines index....4      4      4      5      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..63     63     143    143    196    196
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 23 mph becoming west 9 to 13
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (181500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........4         3         3         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............79        65        58        54
RH..............12        18        21        26
20 FT wind......SW 10G24  SW 7G20   SW 3G14   SW 2G9
Mix hgt (ft)....7600      7600      600       600
Transport wind..SW 23     SW 23     W 13      W 9
Haines index....6         5         5         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..182       182       7         5
Ventrate Cat....EXNT      EXNT      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.JUNETEENTH...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs around 80. Southeast winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Rocky Beery
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416140.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rocky.beery@usda.gov