701
FNUS74 KEPZ 092317
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Antone...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on June 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

We will see min RH`s Monday afternoon near 20% with breezy west
winds. The winds look to stay below critical levels. There will be
a slight chance for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. If
a thunderstorm does develop, it could produce dry lightning and
strong outflow winds. For Monday night, our winds will go light or
drainage and we will have decent RH recoveries of around 40%. On
Tuesday the light winds will continue with just a slight chance
for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Vent rates in the
afternoon will range from good to very good.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 8 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (102000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (133800
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........38     59     59     71     60     60
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     63     69     74     77     76
RH..............46     34     27     22     19     19
20 ft wind......W 5    W 5    W 5    W 6    W 7    W 7
20 ft wind gust.9      12     12     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   2700   9600   9600   10600  10600
Transport wind..NE 8   NE 8   W 10   W 10   W 14   W 14
Haines index....3      2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19     19     102    102    134    134
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 11 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (122200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (4100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........47     47     29     15     15     10
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............74     66     61     58     56     54
RH..............20     27     33     37     38     41
20 ft wind......W 6    W 6    W 3    W 2    W 2    W 1
20 ft wind gust.13     13     9      3      3      3
Mix hgt (ft)....9400   9400   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 14  NW 14  NW 11  NW 11  NW 12  NW 12
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..122    122    4      4      5      5
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (121900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (149400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         8         15        29
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............53        68        78        84
RH..............41        24        17        13
20 FT wind......NW 3G6    NW 4G9    NW 5G9    NW 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....3400      3400      11400     12600
Transport wind..NW 12     NW 12     NW 12     NW 14
Haines index....3         3         5         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37        37        122       149
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415831.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@firenet.gov