Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
066 FNUS74 KEPZ 182202 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 402 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on June 18. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions will remain through the evening. Winds will slowly decrease during the overnight, becoming light and terrain/diurnal driven in direction. Overnight recoveries of 32 to 42 percent. For Wednesday, low-end breezy winds out of the south at 7 to 12 mph with gusts up to 20 possible. Min RH values will be 10 to 15 percent with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Deep mixing will promote Very Good smoke ventilation rates. Slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Low to middle 50s. Max humidity........32 to 42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable or diurnal/terrain driven during the overnight. Mixing height.......Quickly decreasing after sunset, becoming less than 1000 ft AGL during the overnight. Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (77400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM Sky (%).........30 7 7 8 2 2 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............72 64 60 57 55 53 RH..............16 22 25 28 30 33 20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 5 SW 5 W 2 SW 2 SW 2 20 ft wind gust.15 12 12 8 6 6 Mix hgt (ft)....7300 7300 100 100 100 100 Transport wind..SW 16 SW 16 W 11 W 11 W 7 W 7 Haines index....6 5 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..77 77 1 1 1 1 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR .JUNETEENTH... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy (10-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......0-10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Low 80s. Min humidity........10-15 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 7 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to around 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (201700 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........2 2 1 6 6 7 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............53 62 70 76 81 82 RH..............35 28 22 17 13 12 20 ft wind......S 2 S 2 S 4 S 7 S 7 S 10 20 ft wind gust.7 7 13 16 16 18 Mix hgt (ft)....3100 3100 10200 10200 11900 11900 Transport wind..S 9 S 9 S 22 S 22 S 22 S 22 Haines index....4 4 5 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 38 202 202 244 244 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Slight chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 2400, then 3 until 0300, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 56. Max humidity........77 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....South 21 to 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (226300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (6600 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........3 6 12 22 Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC S CHC Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC NONE Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 LAL.............1 1 6 1 Temp............79 67 62 58 RH..............12 23 39 64 20 FT wind......S 6G16 S 7G16 SE 9G17 SE 9G18 Mix hgt (ft)....11300 11300 300 600 Transport wind..S 21 S 21 SE 24 SE 24 Haines index....6 6 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..226 226 7 12 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 78. Min humidity........32 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 28 to 31 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (60300 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (139500 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (170800 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........23 17 17 Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 LAL.............1 1 3 Temp............56 69 77 RH..............77 51 36 20 FT wind......SE 9G18 SE 10G20 SE 8G16 Mix hgt (ft)....2200 5700 7100 Transport wind..SE 29 SE 31 SE 28 Haines index....3 2 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..60 140 171 Ventrate Cat....GOOD VYGD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... Mostly cloudy with showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around 8 mph. .SATURDAY... Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds. .SUNDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. Light winds. $$ Forecaster...ROGERS Requested by...Francesca Chavez Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416319.1/EPZ .DELDT 06/18/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov