265
FNUS74 KEPZ 121501
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
901 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on June 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of hot and dry day ahead as an upper ridge builds in
over the region. Expect today and tomorrow to be the warmest of
the year so far.  RH`s will be back toward 10% but winds will be
light with the ridge right overhead.  A small amount of moisture
may move in for Friday with gusty southwest winds, but
thunderstorm coverage looks scattered at best.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) then becoming partly cloudy
                    (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 15900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15300 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (131900 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........0      7      25     44
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............75     81     86     87
RH..............14     12     9      9
20 ft wind......NW 3   NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
20 ft wind gust.13     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....12800  12800  15900  15900
Transport wind..W 11   W 11   W 10   W 10
Haines index....6      6      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..132    132    134    134
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........48     38     23     4      4      1
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............84     74     68     64     61     59
RH..............10     15     18     20     24     25
20 ft wind......W 5    W 5    W 5    NW 5   NW 5   NW 4
20 ft wind gust.16     16     14     14     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....11000  11000  200    200    200    200
Transport wind..W 10   W 10   NW 17  NW 17  NW 14  NW 14
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..88     88     3      3      2      2
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 15500 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 12 mph shifting to the south 9 to
                    10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (138800
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         1         27        52
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............58        72        81        87
RH..............25        17        12        10
20 FT wind......N 3G10    NE 4G13   SE 5G15   S 6G16
Mix hgt (ft)....1800      1800      15300     15500
Transport wind..N 12      N 12      SE 9      S 10
Haines index....6         6         6         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18        18        108       139
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415987.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov