Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
866
FNUS74 KEPZ 222312
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for NORMANDY FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
512 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Winds will mainly be light for the rest of this evening, largely
driven by terrain after dark. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out this evening, but chances are low. Overnight RH
recoveries increase to the mid 60s. Tomorrow will see warmer
conditions with min RH values returning to the low to mid 20s.
Winds will remain light, generally less than 10 MPH, with variable
direction. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to around 60
percent beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies comprised of cumulus
and stratocumulus. Gusty winds will be the main concernw with any
thunderstorm.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the
north around 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
night decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft)
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........29 29 26 25 25 26
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 10 10 10
LAL.............3 3 1 1 1 1
Temp............87 80 75 72 70 68
RH..............27 35 41 48 51 63
20 ft wind......E 8 E 8 NE 7 NE 7 NE 7 N 6
20 ft wind gust.13 13 13 14 14 12
Mix hgt (ft)....9400 9400 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 14 E 14 SW 9 SW 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..104 104 5 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers early
in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Showers likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the east around 9
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........30 30 10 14 14 30
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 40 40 60
LAL.............1 1 1 4 4 5
Temp............67 75 82 87 91 92
RH..............70 58 46 32 27 24
20 ft wind......W 5 W 5 SW 5 SE 5 SE 5 S 6
20 ft wind gust.8 8 9 10 10 12
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1900 9500 9500 9500 9500
Transport wind..W 7 W 7 E 9 E 9 SE 9 SE 9
Haines index....2 3 3 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 78 78 77 77
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5500 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........41 42 60 54
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 10 10
LAL.............5 5 1 1
Temp............89 78 73 69
RH..............26 45 64 73
20 FT wind......SW 7G12 SW 6G12 SW 5G8 SW 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....8000 8000 800 800
Transport wind..SW 12 SW 12 W 12 W 7
Haines index....3 3 3 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64 64 8 6
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Showers
likely in the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the northeast 6
to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (51100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........41 25 35
Weather cov.....NONE NONE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 70
LAL.............1 1 5
Temp............67 82 91
RH..............78 47 31
20 FT wind......W 5G9 W 5G10 NW 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 7600 7800
Transport wind..W 7 NE 6 E 8
Haines index....2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 43 51
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs around 90. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416500.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov