842
FNUS74 KEPZ 211835
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Normandy Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1235 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4PM this evening will
lead to more erratic winds and gusts to 40 mph the rest of the
night. Light southeast flow continues tomorrow as conditions
become warmer and drier. Very good midday smoke ventilation this
weekend with transport to the WNW.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers early
                    in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Showers likely late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to around 31
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (74300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........89     89     90
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     70
LAL.............4      4      5
Temp............79     81     82
RH..............50     47     46
20 ft wind......E 17   E 17   E 14
20 ft wind gust.31     31     25
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   3800   3800
Transport wind..SE 24  E 22   E 22
Haines index....3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..76     74     74
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers in the
                    evening. Scattered thunderstorms through the
                    night. Scattered showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................4 until 0300, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........81     81     85     73     73     56
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).80     80     80     40     40     30
LAL.............5      5      5      4      4      4
Temp............81     76     74     72     70     69
RH..............50     57     65     69     70     67
20 ft wind......E 11   E 11   E 10   NE 10  NE 10  NE 10
20 ft wind gust.20     20     18     20     20     18
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1600   600    600    700    700
Transport wind..E 22   E 22   E 15   E 15   E 13   E 13
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     34     10     10     6      6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    through the day. Scattered thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (113800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........42        22        27        27
Weather cov.....SCTTRD    ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      ISOLTD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).40        20        40        40
LAL.............1         1         4         4
Temp............69        79        87        91
RH..............67        48        35        27
20 FT wind......NE 8G16   E 8G16    E 8G16    E 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      1500      6900      8500
Transport wind..E 13      E 13      E 13      E 15
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19        19        92        114
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds around
6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70.
Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416492.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov