128
FXUS64 KEWX 291110
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
610 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The main area of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east
into the eastern counties at the present time. This activity
associated with a mid-level impulse has allowed for widespread
beneficial rainfall to occur over most of the CWA. In addition to
the rain, we have seem some reports of some gusty winds on the
back edge of the precip shield indicative of perhaps a weak wake
low. Will continue to monitor this for any possible higher wind
speeds which would need some sort of headline to cover the threat.
Further to the west, some additional scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms can be seen on radar with the bulk of the activity in
Mexico but now seeing some of this skirt just east of the Rio
Grande. The presentation and movement of this is indicative of
additional mid-level lift. This activity is not picked up well by the
latest high-res model guidance but think as this moves east into our
worked over airmass much of this should struggle to strengthen. Will
continue to monitor for possible signs this thinking is wrong.

Latest high-res models are fairly quiet for the today period through
the late afternoon and evening hours as the atmosphere struggles to
bounce back from the overnight activity. Will keep some low PoPs in
the forecast for mainly the eastern and northern counties through
the afternoon. Overall not too confident in the forecast, but with
peak heating could see some additional isolated showers and storms
in addition to the left over morning activity. The severe
threat is non-zero, but overall low. The Day 1 Outlook has the CWA
in a level 1 risk for severe storms. Otherwise, high temperatures
today will top out in the upper 80s in the north to the upper 90s in
the Rio Grande Counties.

For tonight, will keep some 20 PoPs in the forecast for the chance
of an isolated shower or storm. Lows will be in the 70s. Additional
isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms can be expected
Thursday, but overall chances and confidence is low with little
focus for forcing. Highs will be back in the upper 80s to near 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A daily opportunity for low to medium chances of rain and storms
will continue through the end of the workweek and into the upcoming
weekend. These thunderstorm chances will remain attributed to a
combination of factors, including a stationary front across North
Texas, a dryline across West Texas, any outflow boundaries that
develop from convection each day, and weak impulses/disturbances
riding above the top of the ridge centered across Mexico embedded
within the westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow. While this
particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact
locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number of
factors at play and the nuances of each. Convective parameters may
support organized strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain at
times as well. Temperatures will run near or slightly above normal
through the weekend.

THe rain and storm chances look to decline and temperatures look to
start rising into early to middle of next week as medium range
guidance shows the ridging over Mexico starts to strengthen and
nudge more northward into Texas and the Desert Southwest. We will
have to keep an eye on those peak heat indices again next week each
afternoon as a result of the climbing temperatures and continued
elevated dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High MVFR to VFR ceilings continue this morning. Things did not drop
as much as previously expected with some subsidence behind the
rainfall system. Overall chances for additional activity is low today
and will not mention anything in the TAFs. Should see the return of
MVFR ceilings to all sites overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  74  90  74 /  30  20  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  74  93  74 /  20  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            85  72  86  71 /  40  20  30  40
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  80 100  78 /  10  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  72  89  71 /  30  20  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             94  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  75  89  75 /  30  20  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           94  76  95  75 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...29