454
FXUS64 KEWX 200537 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains
this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill
defined. The flow, while generally from the southern half of the
compass, is best defined as light and variable over South-Central
Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures and
dewpoints are within a couple of degrees of where they were 24 hours
ago. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east
during the short term period. Models show the low level flow
becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that
will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper
ridge will keep the weather dry through the period. The above normal
temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow
night will be mostly in the 70s. Some record warm lows will be
possible both nights. High temperatures Friday will be in the 90s.
Record highs are 100 and higher. While we do not have any records in
the forecast, some places could be within a couple of degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper-level ridging will be at it`s strongest and centered over
South Central Texas on Saturday. It should begin to flatten and
weaken somewhat by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for a cold
front to surge southward into the northern Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau late Sunday. Our next shot at rain probably won`t
arrive until at least Tuesday as another upper-level trough
approaches from the west. What happens beyond Wednesday is very much
in question. When guidance can get a better grasp on what sort of
tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean and what to do
with the 500mb High as it weakens and slides eastward, it will
determine how the large scale pattern evolves next week. In any
matter, it looks like we should see an end to the above normal
temperatures and replace it with near normal highs by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next couple of hours (to about
07z) before MVFR cigs begin to affect the I-35 corridor sites. The
RGB nighttime microphysics imagery is showing pockets of low cigs
pushing from the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor as well over
the southern part of the Rio Grande. These low cigs are forecast to
affect the area terminals overnight through mid Friday morning.
There are some hints of IFR cigs affecting the KAUS, KSAT and KSSF
between 12z and 13z and therefore mentioned. VFR cigs return to area
terminals along the I-35 by 16z and shortly after across KDRT.
Southeast winds of 6 knots or less are forecast for the overnight
into mid Friday morning time frame, then 6 to 9 knots in the
afternoon and evening with occasional gusts up to 15 knots for the
I-35 sites and up to 20 knots for KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  74  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  73  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  79  96  78 /  10  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  73  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  94  72 /  10  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  73  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  95  74 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...17