320
FXUS64 KEWX 170644
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
144 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A blocky pattern aloft continues over the CONUS region. Shortwaves
rotating through troughing over the western states, ridging over
Mexico extending to over Texas to the Great Lakes, and the remnants
of Francine over the eastern states absorbing the remnants of PTC 8.
CAMs show a few very isolated showers possible from portions of the
Hill Country to across the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains
this afternoon into early evening due to heating along a dissipating
surface boundary. However, chances around 10 percent are too low to
mention, at this time. The boundary is gone by Wednesday with no
showers expected. Well above average, summer-like temperatures
continue due to lower level thermal ridging.

Some of our climate sites will approach record highs today the 17th
of September. See CLIMATE section below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper level ridging dominates the local area through the upcoming
weekend. At the surface, a moist southerly flow is forecast to take
control through the period with overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s across the Hill Country to the mid and upper 70s along the I-35
corridor, Rio Grande and Coastal Plains areas. High temperatures are
forecast to be above the normal climate values for several locations
ranging from low to mid 90s and even near 100 across the southern
part of the Rio Grande.

Any shower activity from Wednesday night through Sunday morning is
likely limited to the Coastal Plains. From Sunday morning into the
afternoon, an upper level short wave trough is forecast to move
across the Texas panhandle continuing into the central and eastern
parts of the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches
from the Central Plains southwestward into west Texas. The frontal
boundary lingers to the northwest of South Central Texas through the
period. There is a slight chance for showers across the southern
Edwards Plateau on Sunday afternoon as an upper level disturbance
pushes over that area.

The work week begins with dry conditions for most areas with lows
and highs closer to the normal values for the season.

Beyond the extended forecast period: A stronger and deeper upper
level short wave trough is forecast to push across South Central
Texas on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to push across the
local area on Wednesday afternoon based on the GFS solution. The
ECMWF keeps the frontal boundary to the north of the local area.
Long story short, if the GFS solution is on track, then rain chances
are possible with cooler temps mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Tuesday night. The
exception could be a brief period of MVFR CIGs at KDRT early in the
morning. Better chances for MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday morning.
Light winds at 7 KTs or less, except 10 to 15 KTs at KDRT during the
day on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021)
Del Rio............103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  75  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  73  98  75 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  74  99  76 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  73  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  75  98  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...17
Aviation...04