013
FXUS64 KEWX 160530
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Updated the PoPs this evening to show slightly better coverage, but
radar trends in the past hour would suggest the lower coverage as was
depicted earlier. Another update to lower or even drop PoPs may be
needed in the next hour or two should the decreasing trends
continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mid and upper level clouds near and north of Highway 90 have
cleared, while cloudiness persists farther south into the Rio Grande
and coastal plains. Afternoon temperatures are warmest where the
clearing has occurred and with some additional heating, we could tie
or break record high temperatures at Austin Mabry and Austin
Bergstrom. We`ve seen some light showers along the Rio Grande mainly
near and south of Eagle Pass this morning and the latest radar data
continues to show some light echoes in the mentioned area. Radar
imagery also shows some convection beginning to develop farther north
into central Texas along a weak frontal boundary. For late this
afternoon and into the evening hours, the hi-res models generally
show some potential for isolated to scattered convection to develop
across portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor near and
north of Austin. We will continue to mention a low chance for showers
and storms, but will keep chances limited to 20- 30%. Farther south,
we can`t rule out a stray shower or storm, but confidence is much
lower. Most of the convection should weaken with the loss of daytime
heating, so the forecast will be dry for most areas by late evening
into the overnight hours. The exception will be across portions of
the Rio Grande plains south of Eagle Pass, where some overnight
showers remain possible. On Monday, high temperatures may ease a
degree or two compared to today. However, highs will still remain
above normal for mid-September, with 90s in store. We will need to
monitor for the possibility of some isolated afternoon convection
across portions of the Hill Country into the I- 35 corridor on
Monday. Much will depend on how much convection develops today and if
the frontal boundary is nudged southward. For now, confidence is low
and we will not mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Little change, featuring above normal temperatures and a rain free
forecast, will be expected across South-Central Texas for mid to
late week. This will be the result of mid-level ridging aloft and
the continued light to modest southerly low level flow. Afternoon
highs will top out generally in the mid to upper 90s while the
overnight lows trend warm and humid in the low to mid 70s across
most locations. Mostly sunny skies should generally trend each
afternoon, however, do expect patchy to areas of low clouds each
morning with the humid dew points in place across the region.

An upper level trough advancing across the Four Corners region on
Friday into the weekend should help to erode the western periphery
of the mid-level ridging over the local region. While the trough
lifts northeastward toward the Central Plains into Sunday, it may
allow for a weak surface front to approach the Hill Country for
sometime Sunday. With sufficient regional moisture, lower mid-level
heights, and the influence from that surface front could yield to a
low end rain and storm chance during the weekend. However, Sunday
looks slightly more favorable and of a larger areal footprint in
comparison to Saturday. The temperatures will shave off a couple
degrees as well but look to remain above the average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period for most areas across south-
central Texas. Isolated SHRAs will be possible near and south of a
5T9-COT line overnight and Monday. In addition, there is a 10-20%
chance of isolated SHRAs from 22Z-03Z near a weak surface boundary
through the Hill Country into the inland Coastal Plain, roughly near
a T82-BAZ-T20 line. Confidence and coverage is too low to include in
the SAT TAF at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 15       Sep 16       Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)...99 (2019*)...99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (1953)...101 (2019)....99 (2021)
Del Rio............102 (1912)...101 (1997)...103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1988*)...99 (1954)....98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  74  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  76  96  78 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  73  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  75  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  75  98  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76