923
FXUS64 KEWX 191949
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

*Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue into early
Thursday.

*Confidence in the highest rainfall totals is seen across the far
southern portions of the area where the Flood Watch remains.

*Rain amounts have trended down overall.

*Isolated tornado threat remains across our southeastern-most
counties into this evening.

Discussion:

Rain bands from what is now the first named storm of the season,
Alberto, are moving in over South Central Texas with some embedded
thunderstorms. So far, rainfall rates have been tame, but as heavier
showers move into the region, especially south of I-10, any embedded
thunderstorms could contain rainfall rates of 1-2"/hour. There is
still a low end threat for flooding and flash flooding, and the
Flood Watch remains in effect for our southern tier of counties
through midday Thursday.

Overall, rainfall totals are expected to remain between 1-3 inches
over the southern CWA, with between 0.5-2" for the remainder of the
area. The 12Z sounding out of CRP showed PWATs in excess of 2.5"
along with a nearly saturated profile all the way up to 100mb. Long,
skinny profiles, along with modest CAPE and high moisture
environments can produce significant tropical rainfall. Despite
lowered amounts, this is still a beneficial event, as it will act to
keep temperatures down during what is usually one of the hottest and
most humid months of the year and it should help limit short term
drought impacts as we add some moisture to area soils without
widespread severe weather. Speaking of severe weather, there is a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tornadoes over the Coastal Plains,
but the primary concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall and
the low end chance for flooding.

The heavier rain threat should end from east to west by sunrise
Thursday, but there is still a threat for widely scattered showers
and storms to develop Thursday afternoon. The primary threat would
be locally heavy rainfall, but widespread flooding and flash
flooding are not expected at this time beyond 18Z Thursday.
Temperatures will remain some 5-15 degrees below normal for late
June as well, so the first official day of Summer will certainly not
feel like it across South Central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As the remnants of Alberto dissipate over Mexico there will still be
a deep, moist airmass over South Central Texas. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue Friday with the best chances along
and south of I-10/Hwy 90. The low level flow over the weekend and
early next week will be from the southeast. This will keep a warm,
moist airmass in place. A weak upper ridge will allow for isolated
convection driven by daytime heating each day Saturday through
Wednesday over the Coastal Plains. Some days the storms will spread
toward the west and north. Chances will mostly be slight and most
places will remain dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly
warm through the long term to back above normal by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

To put it simply, the TAFS are a mess over the next 24-30 hours. The
expectation is for rain to overspread the region from west to east
over the next few hours, but with continued mention in the TAFS
through the remainder of the period. MVFR to IFR Cigs are likely
through the day today and should continue through midday Thursday
before lifting to VFR by the early afternoon hours. Winds are
expected to remain quite strong through this afternoon and evening,
peaking after sunset between 20-25 kts, and gusting to 30-35 kts at
times through early Thursday morning. Expect a mainly easterly to
east-southeasterly component. A round of +RA is possible mainly
between 22-02Z at SAT and SSF, with AUS seeing SHRA through the late
evening hours. Have opted for PROB30s at AUS and SAT to account for
scattered storms possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  90  75  93 /  50  40  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  90  74  91 /  50  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  88  74  91 /  70  50  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            74  88  74  90 /  50  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  90  77  93 /  90  70  60  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  89  73  90 /  40  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  88  74  89 /  80  60  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  89  72  90 /  60  50  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  90  74  90 /  40  40   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  89  75  90 /  80  60  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76  89  76  91 /  80  60  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Atascosa-De Witt-Dimmit-
Frio-Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca-Maverick-Wilson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM