230
FXUS62 KFFC 280110
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
910 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered convection is still ongoing primarily across west-
central and south-central GA this evening. Per the latest SPC
mesoanalysis, this convection appears to be elevated, given the
CIN currently in place. This is also reaffirmed by the latest 00z
FFC sounding. Nevertheless, a few strong and isolated severe
thunderstorms will still be possible capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for much of south- central GA until 10 PM.
With this latest forecast update several counties in east-central
GA have been removed from the watch. As the evening progresses,
additional counties are likely to be removed from the watch prior
to the expiration time. As we head into the overnight hours, our
concern shifts to hydro particularly along the southern CWA
boarder (portions of Stewart, Webster, southern Marion and Schley,
Sumter and Crisp counties). These areas can typically take a
decent amount of rainfall given the soil type but several rounds
of locally heavy rainfall have impacted these areas and any
additional rainfall may pose a localized flooding threat
overnight. At this time 2 to 3 inches look to have occurred. So
certainly something to monitor over the next few hours with
convection still present in that area.

Patchy fog will be possible in low-lying areas and/or areas that
received an appreciable amount of rainfall today. A surface front
will continue to push through the CWA overnight resulting in
drier conditions for Tuesday and perhaps through mid- week as high
pressure builds across portions of the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The main line of thunderstorms has moved out of the area, leaving a
boundary stretching from Heard County over through Bibb County. A
couple storms continue to move along this boundary, occasionally
spinning up as they ingests vorticity and MUCAPE of around 2000
J/Kg. This storm is likely to remain at or near severe levels
through the next few hours.

A few storms are possible north of the boundary this afternoon as
the larger mid level trough and sfc cold front pushed through. These
storms will be isolated in nature although a storm becoming strong
cannot be ruled out. Storms along and south of the boundary will be
more scattered in nature. These southern storms also have a greater
potential to become strong to even severe given the atmosphere has
not quite been worked over just yet.

With current cloud coverage, temperatures continue to
most models. CAMs overall struggled with this system, however the
HRRR seems to be doing the best of all of them.

The good news is that once this system moves through, conditions
clear and dry out. Winds will be light but noticeable tomorrow and
highs will reach back into the mid-80s.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

With active weather ongoing across portions of the forecast area,
only minor adjustments have been made to the extended forecast based
on the latest guidance. The previous discussion follows...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The extended forecast starts off dry as high
pressure slowly builds in from the northern plains and western
great lake states. With this ridge and drier airmass will come
slightly cooler temps for the middle to the end of the week. Temps
Wed through Fri will see highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s.
Moisture begins to creep back in for the weekend and could see
precip chances move back in for Sat/Sun.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Sct convection continues for areas primarily south of I-20 this
evening and is expected to gradually dissipate closer to 03z.
Cigs/vsbys largely remain VFR, though MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible in association with any convection that occurs. MVFR
vsbys will be possible between 06-12z at CSG/MCN. Skies are
expected to clear out after 06z with SKC expected on Tuesday.
Winds will be light/VRB tonight switching to the NW 5 to 10kts
with gusts nearing 22kts Tuesday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on TSRA potential at ATL through 02z.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  86  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  86  65  84 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     59  77  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    64  84  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        69  90  66  88 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     65  83  61  83 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           68  89  63  88 /  50   0   0   0
Rome            65  85  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  66  86  62  85 /  30   0   0   0
Vidalia         72  90  67  89 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07