265
FXUS62 KFFC 220525
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

At a glance:

-Period of calm weather continues.

-Max temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above normal.

It may be the first day of fall according the the calendar, but
summer isn`t going anywhere. High pressure will keep daytime highs
in the low 90s while overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low
70s. Winds are expected to stay out of the SW and W which will
largely keep temperatures running above average through the weekend.

As far as pops go, you`ll have to look at the long term for any hope
of that. A few afternoon CU clouds will be as much as we can dare to
ask for. So get out and enjoy the nice weather!

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen
beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the
four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As
it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee
and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in
turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further
southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to
increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating
marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while
there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it
will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe
weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front
and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected
and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be
isolated/scattered in nature.

One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by
Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the
weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time
of year.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the
western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC continues to carry a 60% chances
fro tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS
ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere along the gulf
coast is fair game for any potential landfall at this time. The
models should get a better idea of this system once the area of low
pressure actually forms mid this week. Another factor coming into
play is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how
it will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals are around an
inch but again with the uncertainty this is highly subject to
change. More information should come together over the next couple
of days although uncertainty still remains.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR through the period with few/sct afternoon cu. Winds will
remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         73  92  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     64  85  64  83 /  10  20  10  30
Cartersville    67  93  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus        72  93  72  92 /   0  10   0   0
Gainesville     69  91  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
Macon           70  93  70  92 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            67  93  68  91 /   0  20   0  10
Peachtree City  69  92  69  90 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         71  92  70  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa