495
FXUS62 KFFC 152343 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At a glance:

    - Hottest day of the year (so far) today

    - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon

The key player in the next few days` sensible weather is an
amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking
up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Heating and drying of our
presiding airmass under uninterrupted subsidence will be further
reinforced at the surface, where the western fringes of a retreating
surface high will blanket the area. The result of the aforementioned
features: impressive, though comparatively dry, heat through the
weekend. Today looks to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with highs forecast to top out in the mid-to-upper 90s (aside from
northeast Georgia, which will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near
90). Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the
low-to-mid 90s expected.

The saving grace of this setup will be low afternoon relative
humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and central
Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat Advisory
issuance. As it stands, heat index values look to top out in the 98-
102F degree range today, enough to cause heat-related illnesses in
sensitive/vulnerable populations, like children, the elderly, and
those without access to air conditioning. Tomorrow, with marginally
lower highs, heat index values look to remain outside of the triple
digits for most locales. In addition to the heat, a Code Orange air
quality alert is in effect for the Atlanta Metro this afternoon, due
primarily to smog/ozone. The moral of the story: despite lower
moisture precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself
if planning on spending large parts of your weekend outdoors, and
always look before you lock.

This afternoon, due to weakness in flow near the surface and a
convergent boundary roughly bisecting the forecast area, low-end (15-
20%) chances for thunderstorms have been introduced for areas along
and south of I-85/north of Columbus and Macon during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and
associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective
initiation. Sunday, with a surface high sliding across New York
State and off the Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped
isobars banking up against the Appalachian mountains, north and
north central Georgia look primed for brief wedging. Aided by
isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, cloud
coverage and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is likely to be
higher. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are
unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs
will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The warm temperatures are expected to continue through this week
as the high pressure dominates with mid level ridging also
dominating the pattern. There does remain the chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms although that chance is pretty low at
this point. Would not be surprised if thee is just enough
moisture return and enough differential heating to produce a stray
thunderstorm which could ultimately lead to a damaging wind gust.
With the moisture plume going into the lower MS valley and the
tropical moisture (currently 50% by NHC) expected to go into the
TX/LA border the pressure gradient could become tight enough over
central and western Georgia to give the area gusty winds through
Wednesday into Thursday. Other than that, there are some model
indications that precip chances could return into the weekend but
this is basing off any tropical moisture we get so this is highly
dependent.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Isold SHRA/TSRA slowly moving WSW this evening will decrease in
coverage and dissipate by 03Z. KCSG most likely to see SHRA but
confidence and coverage not high enough to include in forecast.
VFR conditions expected tonight and Sunday with sct SHRA/TSRA
possible after 19Z at most sites. Sfc winds very light ENE or
variable tonight then SE 5-8kts after 16Z Sun.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on wind direction this evening
Medium-High confidence on TSRA likelihood and timing Sun
High confidence on all other elements


SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  91 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         74  95  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     67  87  67  86 /  10  40  30  30
Cartersville    71  94  72  93 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        74  97  74  94 /  10  20  20  20
Gainesville     71  90  72  89 /  20  30  20  10
Macon           72  97  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
Rome            73  95  74  94 /  10  30  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  92 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         72  95  72  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SNELSON