Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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812 FXUS62 KFFC 170839 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 439 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The coastal low that pushed onshore Monday is currently spinning over the Carolinas this morning. This low will slowly drift eastward, bringing rain to parts of far northeast Georgia this morning. Rain chances will generally taper off later this morning before more diurnally driven shower activity returns to northeast Georgia this afternoon as remnant moisture remains in place while the system stalls out. Moisture wrapping around the low will produce a cloud deck that will keep much of north Georgia under mostly cloudy skies today. This will also keep high temperatures a bit cooler across north Georgia compared to their southern counterparts. Temperatures north of I-20 will be running in the upper 60s to low 80s while areas south will reach the mid to upper 80s today. With much of the area remaining under cloud cover tonight, lows will remain generally in the 60s. A few locations across far north Georgia may also experience patchy dense fog, especially in low lying areas. Tomorrow as we continue to deal with the low pressure parked over the Carolinas, similar weather conditions will prevail. With more moisture coinciding with some better instability parameters tomorrow afternoon across far northeast Georgia, a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder is in the forecast. Further to our south, a weak surface low will be moving along the boundary through South Georgia, but any precipitation will have a difficult time overcoming the drier continental air aloft in the dry slot of the system over the Carolinas. For now, PoPs remain at a low end slight chance for eastern central Georgia during the afternoon hours. KAB && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Key Messages: - Quiet weather through much of the forecast. - Highs in the mid to upper 80s through the end of the week. Some cooling possible by Saturday/Sunday as wedge moves into the area. Forecast Discussion: The Potential Tropical Cyclone ended up being a bit more baroclinic than barotropic in nature, and has developed a full vertically stacked low that should be over the CWA at the beginning of the long term. Outside of this though, the upper level flow is well removed from the CWA, with large upper level ridge over the area. Without much moisture to work with, and without a system to help draw moisture into us, the long term looks to be pretty dry. Even the ensembles have mostly removed any rain chances across east central Georgia. No PoPs across the CWA as a result, with the exception of some isolated chances in the mountains on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures through the end of the week will warm into the mid to upper 80s, and even a few 90s may be able to make an appearance. With drier air around temps will still cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. Going into Saturday/Sunday, another strong surface high pressure is set to establish itself over the NE as a complex upper level flow pattern sets up. This should push a CAD event/wedge into the CWA, cooling things a bit, though given how complex the upper level pattern looks, some uncertainty is inherent in this. Speaking of uncertainty, we won`t talk too much about what the GFS is showing on the 00Z run into next week. What we will remind folks of is that one run of one model is not truth, and that friends don`t let friends share single model runs 10 days out on social media. There are plenty of reasons to doubt what we are seeing in the model at this point in time. Lusk && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR currently with calm conditions. BKN MVFR will be possible around sunrise at northern TAF locations for a few hours before improving back to VFR. -SHRA will be possible at KAHN from 18-22Z. MVFR returns to KATL/KAHN overnight. Winds will be shifting to the NW over the course of the next few hours. NW winds from 5-9KT will become light and VRB overnight. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on MVFR and -SHRA. High confidence on remaining elements. KAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 79 63 84 65 / 30 10 20 0 Atlanta 83 64 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 Blairsville 71 58 78 58 / 50 20 40 0 Cartersville 82 62 85 64 / 10 0 10 0 Columbus 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 77 63 83 65 / 30 10 20 0 Macon 87 65 88 65 / 0 0 10 0 Rome 82 63 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 Peachtree City 84 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 Vidalia 85 68 87 69 / 0 0 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAB LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...KAB