Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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349 FXUS62 KFFC 101047 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 647 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weak frontal boundary will continue to push south across the CWA this morning. The front looks to currently be draped across central portions of the CWA. A weak shortwave is also noted within the flow aloft, and is likely helping to steepen lapse rates. Convection has picked up in the last few hours, with a few strong storms. Getting some indications of small hail within the storms, and with mid level lapse rates averaging between 6-6.5 C/km, this trend will likely continue. In addition, DCAPE across the southern portion of the forecast area this morning is around 800 J/kg, and any strong storms that develop will be gusty. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the question. The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. The storms also contain frequent lighting. The front should continue to move slowly south through the morning and scattered storms will be possible until the boundary is south of the CWA. The front looks to stall across very south GA or the Florida panhandle through the remainder of the short term forecast period. Behind this front, much drier dewpoints will settle across much of north and central GA. Values in the lower to middle 50s will filter southward today and remain in place through Tuesday. Temps right around normal are anticipated for today and tomorrow. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday Morning through Sunday Morning. Models continue to struggle with the long term outlook, so this discussion will remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges. A broad upper level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast and into the GoM. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak gulf surface low with the potential to transport significant moisture northward. The track of the low itself will have major implications in the amount of moisture that is brought northward. Run to run model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around 2.0" to as high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and strength of the broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider is the potential development of the Bermuda High. Recent model runs have strengthened the high, both pushing the Gulf Low westward, but also driving northwest flow into GA. This effectively dry wedges much of GA and could have some major implications to moisture availability across a large portion of the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop, PoPs will be relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if not outside the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in the Gulf Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further into Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and shear values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the year so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now. Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week, with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we`ve had so far this year. SM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Back edge of the precip is moving across northern portions of the state. There are some light shra around and some sct IFR. Have added a tempo group for light shra with a bkn IFR cig. Clearing behind the precip should be fairly quick. Winds will remain on the west side through the period. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 86 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 86 64 89 / 10 0 0 10 Blairsville 54 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 57 84 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 66 90 66 92 / 10 0 0 10 Gainesville 60 84 63 86 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 66 90 65 92 / 10 0 0 10 Rome 60 84 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 60 86 61 90 / 10 0 0 10 Vidalia 70 91 70 92 / 30 0 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...NListemaa