Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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692 FXUS62 KFFC 100720 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weak frontal boundary will continue to push south across the CWA this morning. The front looks to currently be draped across central portions of the CWA. A weak shortwave is also noted within the flow aloft, and is likely helping to steepen lapse rates. Convection has picked up in the last few hours, with a few strong storms. Getting some indications of small hail within the storms, and with mid level lapse rates averaging between 6-6.5 C/km, this trend will likely continue. In addition, DCAPE across the southern portion of the forecast area this morning is around 800 J/kg, and any strong storms that develop will be gusty. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the question. The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. The storms also contain frequent lighting. The front should continue to move slowly south through the morning and scattered storms will be possible until the boundary is south of the CWA. The front looks to stall across very south GA or the Florida panhandle through the remainder of the short term forecast period. Behind this front, much drier dewpoints will settle across much of north and central GA. Values in the lower to middle 50s will filter southward today and remain in place through Tuesday. Temps right around normal are anticipated for today and tomorrow. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday Morning through Sunday Morning. Models continue to struggle with the long term outlook, so this discussion will remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges. A broad upper level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast and into the GoM. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak gulf surface low with the potential to transport significant moisture northward. The track of the low itself will have major implications in the amount of moisture that is brought northward. Run to run model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around 2.0" to as high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and strength of the broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider is the potential development of the Bermuda High. Recent model runs have strengthened the high, both pushing the Gulf Low westward, but also driving northwest flow into GA. This effectively dry wedges much of GA and could have some major implications to moisture availability across a large portion of the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop, PoPs will be relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if not outside the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in the Gulf Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further into Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and shear values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the year so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now. Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week, with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we`ve had so far this year. SM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Small-ish cluster of showers and thunderstorms will drop SE early this morning and should begin to impact ATL around 0630Z-07Z. Do expect some bkn MVFR as the storms move over the field and right after. BKN VFR possible for the remainder of the morning before sct VFR cu and bkn mid level clouds. Winds will remain on the west side. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 83 60 86 62 / 40 10 0 0 Atlanta 84 63 86 64 / 40 10 0 0 Blairsville 78 54 79 56 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 84 57 84 58 / 40 10 0 0 Columbus 90 66 90 66 / 30 10 0 0 Gainesville 82 60 84 63 / 40 10 0 0 Macon 88 66 90 65 / 40 10 0 0 Rome 86 60 84 58 / 40 0 0 0 Peachtree City 85 60 86 61 / 40 10 0 0 Vidalia 91 70 91 70 / 30 30 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...NListemaa