046
FXUS62 KFFC 261828
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Clear and fair conditions today, with some nice cumulus across the
region. A few showers with potentially a rumble of thunder are
possible in far Northeast GA. These will be aided by outflow from an
mcs moving through TN and KY, however further south into our area
will remain dry due in part to some weak CIN. With the clear
conditions, temps will be toasty with highs reaching over 90 for the
vast majority of the area.

Looking overnight tonight into Memorial Day, a line of thunderstorms
will make its way out of TN. This line will have the potential to be
severe. Current models are indicating MUCAPE ahead of the line of
~2000 J/Kg. Shear will be high as well with 40 to 50 kts of speed
shear and SRH values of up to 150 m2/s2. CAMs are having a hard time
keying into the exact timing for the line to move through, however
the HRRR has probably been the most consistent. For now will look
for storms to move into North GA around 10Z and descend southward.
The challenge will come with the evolution of the line as it
descends through the Metro. Most models are weakening the line as it
moves through North GA. This seems suspect given MCS trends, the
shear available, and how cold-pools are handled in CAMs. As such the
more likely scenario will see the line move well through the metro
similar to yesterday. This should limit thunderstorm potential later
in the afternoon. Areas where the line does weaken tomorrow morning,
particularly in areas south of I-20, a few storms could redevelop as
the cold front itself moves through and become strong to severe.
We will closely monitor the evolution of the line tomorrow. The
main hazard will definitely be wind. Lapse rates also indicate a
hail threat, and brief "spin-up" tornadoes are not out of the
question.

QPF across the area hangs around the 0.5 to 1.5" at this time,
however locally heavy rainfall is likely with right moving storm
motions.

Temperature-wise tomorrow, have opted to drop temps from model
guidance by a degree or two to account for reduced solar heating in
the morning.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Fairly quiet weather expected for the long term portion of the
forecast.

Monday`s front should settle to the south of the CWA by early
Tuesday. The models are progging a couple of waves to move along the
old boundary, but any precip should remain well to the south of the
outlook area. By the end of the week, a ridge in the mid levels
begins to build. Suspect the models are trending towards climatology
for pops by the weekend.

Overall, the forecast should remain mostly dry with temperatures
near normal. No major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions rest of the day. A few showers and thunderstorms
possible in Northeast GA this afternoon. SW winds at 5 to 10 kts,
gusting 15. Line of thunderstorms move through metro around 11 to
15Z, dropping to IFR to LIFR at times. VCSH behind the line with
IFR conditions. Back to MVFR tomorrow evening and night. Winds
along and behind line may be NW and gusty. VCSH through tomorrow
afternoon with some thunder, particularly in Central and East
Central GA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence thunderstorm timing.
Medium confidence Cigs tomorrow morning.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  84  66  88 /  10  50  20   0
Atlanta         71  85  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
Blairsville     64  79  59  79 /  60  80  10   0
Cartersville    68  84  63  86 /  50  60  10   0
Columbus        72  86  69  91 /   0  50  30   0
Gainesville     68  82  65  85 /  30  60  10   0
Macon           70  86  68  90 /   0  50  30  10
Rome            69  85  64  86 /  60  60  10   0
Peachtree City  70  84  65  88 /  10  50  20   0
Vidalia         71  89  71  90 /   0  50  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...SM