044
FXUS63 KFGF 071523
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1023 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances across the area at various points this
weekend and beyond.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Refined pop chances a bit into the afternoon/early evening
hours, otherwise forecast remains on track. High clouds moving
into the north with some light returns on radar. Maybe a few
sprinkles reaching the ground in the far NW, but more likely
potential into the afternoon as the more robust returns to the
NW spread into the DVL basin and northern RRV.

Previous
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Clouds should be entering the western FA shortly. Rain will not
show up with them until later this evening. Forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Synopsis...

Clear skies currently over the FA this morning, but clouds are
visible to the west on satellite, tracking east. An upper level
closed low will push into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan as the
weekend continues. While some guidance shows the low being whisked
east by upper level flow, most other guidance shows the low sitting
in southern Canada for at least a few days. After that, the next
week looks like brief ridging then NW/W flow aloft depending on
which guidance set you use.


...Precipitation Chances...

In regards to rain, the first system is going to begin today and
continue into the weekend. Precipitation amounts from this first
wave Friday into Saturday look to be <0.25", but the probabilities
for >0.25" are 20 - 30% in the area between MN HWY 200 and I-94.
Sunday looks to have precipitation chances too, but the chances are
only around 20% at most in the area, and QPF amounts look to be less
than 0.10". Next chance for rain will be from a shortwave late
Monday into Tuesday next week, but again, moisture looks to be
lacking with probabilities for >0.25" about 20 - 30% across the
whole area. With both these systems, the chances for severe weather
are low, and widespread thunderstorm chances are low in guidance
with lack of instability. We are entering the season of pop-up
thunderstorms though, so some isolated ones on a sunny day cannot be
ruled out.

Because of the divergence in guidance with regards to the upper
level pattern, predictability for showers and thunderstorms goes
down and gets washed out to minor chances nearly every day. We will
have to see how these chances show themselves in the CAMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions through the period, with brief RA in the Friday
night period, around 1z for northern sites moving SE after that.
Winds will be northerly, before shifting to westerly with the
rain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJB
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH