432
FXUS63 KFGF 060825
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds up to 45 MPH forecasted today in eastern North
 Dakota and portions of northwestern Minnesota.

- Precipitation chances across the area at various points this
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Synopsis...

A persistent layer of clouds is advecting SE from Canada this
morning, which guidance suggests will stay throughout the day in
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A low-level jet is
over our area today, contributing to gusty winds in the area. This
LLJ should propagate east into Friday and the weekend. A 500mb ridge
will build in the west, putting us in NW flow from the weekend
onward.

...Gusty Winds...

The aforementioned low-level jet combined with PGF in the area at
the surface will bring in gustier conditions today. Despite cloud
cover in a lot of the valley, it looks like we could still see winds
advect down to the surface around 30 MPH sustained. We will
definitely hit that in the Devils Lake Basin, but given that
guidance has been under-performing winds the past few days,
decided to go with a wind advisory from the Devils Lake Basin to
the MN Red River Valley. Wind gusts up to 45 MPH are
forecasted, and majority of members in hi-res guidance show
sustained criteria (30 MPH or greater) occurring in areas west
of the escarpment in North Dakota.

...Precipitation Chances...

Showers are going to be possible this Saturday, about a 30 - 50%
chance in northwestern MN. However, the chances for greater than or
equal to 0.25" in this area are only 10% or less. Monday and Tuesday
looks to be next chance for precipitation in the area, but chances
for greater than or equal to 0.25" are <20% this day too. These
chances could change, as this system is 5 days away, so a lot of
variables are still subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Gusty northwest winds between 25-35kt will continue to impact
TAF sites through 00Z Friday, including tonight. Winds will be
relatively lower tonight through 15Z until another uptick in
winds start thereafter. Gusts Thursday after 15Z are forecast
to be generally between 30-40kt.

MVFR CIGs are forecast to spread into northeast ND and northwest
MN tonight. TAF sites forecast to be impacted include KDVL,
KGFK,KTVF, and KBJI. These lowered CIGs are forecast to lift
into VFR criteria around 15Z Thursday, although confidence is
lowered in timing of this improvement, with a 30% chance it
extends after 18Z Thursday.

Isolated light rain showers/virga will remain possible tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...CJ