Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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093 FXUS63 KFGF 050738 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 238 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early evening, mainly across portions of the central and northern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota. - Winds will become very gusty from late morning through the early evening, with gusts to 50 mph along and west of the Red River Valley. - Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons all look to feature gusty northwest winds with a few showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Synopsis... There is more shortwave activity evident on water vapor imagery early this morning over southeast Saskatchewan. Ensembles show portions of this wave moving into northwest Minnesota by 18z or so. Elongated 500/700mb low pressure will then set up from southern Saskatchewan/southern Manitoba through the Great Lakes through at least Saturday. Much less confidence enters the forecast thereafter, in how this pattern may break down. ...Strong to severe thunderstorms today... With morning sunshine and cold temperatures aloft, seeing about 500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE developing across northwest Minnesota this afternoon. The upper jet will also be pushing into the FA by later in the day. With very strong winds aloft, and steep mid level lapse rates, any showers or storms that form have the potential to mix these stronger winds to the surface. The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has portions of the central and northern Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather, with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. ...Gusty winds today... Unidirectional winds throughout the entire sounding are expected today. 850mb winds by 00z Thu look to be about 35 knots along and west of the Valley, and up to 40 across the Devils Lake region. At 700mb, add another 5 to 10 knots to those values. There is a decent surface pressure gradient and steady 850mb cold advection. Think this is a good day to go with winds higher than what the NBM shows, which will bring Wind Advisory criteria into the Red River Valley as well. It will take a while before the worst of the winds move in, which should be through the afternoon into early evening. ...Thursday, Friday, and Saturday... Overall the elongated low pressure across southern Canada to the Great Lakes will take a while to break down, which means not much change in the weather from Thursday through Saturday. The upper jet continues to linger across the FA as well, holding on the southern periphery of the low. Wind speeds may not be quite as strong as today, but some areas could need a Wind Advisory again Thursday. Some afternoon showers are also possible each day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Cloud deck continues to move east of the Red River Valley through BJI. Ceilings remain VFR through the TAF period. Sky coverage is SKC to FEW for TVF, GFK, FAR, and DVL through 12z. Winds start to increase out of the west 12z through 18z. Post 18z winds start to peak, with gusts of 35kts in DVL and 30kts in GFK, FAR, and TVF. BJI will see weaker wind gusts of up to 20kts in the afternoon. Winds continue to be strong, but diminish in intensity post 00z through 06z. Rain moves in around 18z-21z, with the best chances in BJI. Lightning and thunder should remain minimal, but still possible especially for TVF and BJI. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Spender