Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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348 FXUS63 KFGF 031829 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 129 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Tuesday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across the far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon, with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and scattered showers are anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Fog has since dissipated from this morning across the region. Stratus clouds continue to hold in the Red River Valley, becoming more scattered cumulus elsewhere. Stratus is still forecast to lessen in coverage this afternoon within the Valley, with at least some peeks of sunshine by late afternoon/sunset. Isolated light rain showers/sprinkles have developed near Red Lakes to Lake of the Woods area. This will continue to be possible through mid afternoon. Still anticipating an initial wave of widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. There is a low chance for stronger storms capable of bringing small hail with this activity to portions of eastern North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 956 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Fog is gradually diminishing this morning, with some lingering areas of fog near central North Dakota still half a mile or lower. All areas of fog are forecast to completely diminish by noon. Stratus is lingering a bit longer than previously forecast, and may extend into the afternoon before becoming more scattered cumulus. UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Extended the Dense Fog Advisory to 9am as visibilities are still bouncing between 1/4 and 3/4 statute miles for most areas. Hopefully by 9am the sun will have burned off enough fog by then. CAM guidance shows the first wave of precipitation to hit the devils lake basin by 06z tonight. Otherwise forecast still remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Synopsis... The 700/500mb shortwave that brought the severe weather to portions of the FA yesterday is sliding east of the FA quickly early this morning. Some fog and stratus will linger in the clearing through the early morning hours, mainly along and west of the Red River Valley (but potentially across west central Minnesota as well). There will be a bit of break before the next wave pushes from west to east across the FA late tonight into Tuesday. Elongated low pressure will then set up just north and northeast of the FA from Wednesday into Thursday, which will set the stage for gusty winds and scattered showers (more so during the late morning through afternoon hours). ...Late Monday night into Tuesday... A steady consistent signal remains for the next shortwave during this period. As mentioned at this time yesterday, and it continues now, the probabilities for the higher amounts of precipitation with this wave look better across the northern half of the FA. However, even the southern half should see precipitation. The NBM shows a 90 percent probability for rainfall amounts greater than 0.25 inches along the Canadian border to about a 60 percent probability along the Dakotas border (in this FA). As amounts go up to 1 inch or more, the probabilities drop to about 50 percent for the Devils Lake region and northern Red River Valley, to less than 10 percent along the Dakotas border. SPC has backed up the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms into our far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon, barely brushing a Baudette to Bemidji to Staples line. This is a highly conditional threat, all depending on the frontal timing and whether any instability can develop across this area by the afternoon. The 00z CAMs may be a bit slower on the timing of the front, but it appears there will be a lot of clouds and potentially morning showers/weaker storms even across this area, limiting the amount of instability that could develop in the afternoon. One HREF member shows a few UH tracks possible over our far eastern FA during the afternoon, but most members are east of the FA, closer to Duluth. ...Wednesday into Thursday... The 700/500mb low stacks across southern Manitoba during this period, potentially extending all the way into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and gusty winds are possible both days, but mainly during the late morning through afternoon hours. With cold temperatures aloft, any morning sun should result in fairly quick late morning cumulus development. Not anticipating widespread rainfall, but much more showery/spotty with lower end amounts (high probabilities for less than 0.10 inches). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 MVFR CIGs continue at sites like KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, and KDVL until around 20Z. An additional round of lowered MVFR to IFR CIGs accompanied by rain showers and/or thunderstorms will become possible after 09Z associated with a passing low pressure system across the Dakotas into Minnesota tonight through Tuesday. There is lowered confidence in location and timing of thunderstorms after 09Z, so opted to leave out of TAFs for now. Winds will remain light, under 10kt, through 06Z before gradually increasing in the 10-20kt range out of the south and southwest into Tuesday morning. A cold front will eventually sweep across the region Tuesday, shifting and increasing winds out of the west, potentially as early as 15Z at KDVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...CJ