022
FXUS65 KFGZ 252328
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
428 PM MST Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will
arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the dry side of a shortwave
trough passing from Utah into Colorado today. The main shortwave
stays far enough north to keep any associated moisture north of
Arizona, but sufficient pressure gradients have resulted in the
development of gusty southwest winds. Wind gusts this afternoon
are ranging from 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest occurring just
downwind of the Mogollon Rim. Humidity will be low enough in the lower
elevations of northeastern Arizona today to combine with the wind
to generate critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect there until 6 PM. The trough axis moves
east of Arizona this evening allowing pressure gradients to
slacken and winds to decrease tonight.

High pressure will gradually build over the Southwest over the
coming days and bring a quieter weather period for the rest of
the holiday weekend through next week. Much less wind is expected
and temperatures will climb above normal by Monday and remain so
through the week. At this time, the lack of wind should limit any
critical fire weather concerns, however, a warming an drying
trend is expected with afternoon humidity dropping into the single
digits to low teens each day from Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 26/00Z through Monday 27/00Z...VFR. SW-W winds
15-25 kts gusting to 25-35 kts through 03Z, then becoming 10 kts
or less overnight. SW winds around 10-20 kts after 18Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 27/00Z through Wednesday 29/00Z...VFR. SW-W
winds 5-15 kts Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Critical fire weather
conditions this evening across the Little Colorado River Valley and
Chinle Valley. Across the rest of northern Arizona, elevated fire
weather conditions will continue with afternoon winds gusts 25-40
mph and min RHs in the 20s to upper teens. Overnight recoveries
tonight will see most getting above 50 percent. Notably lower RHs
for Sunday and Monday but much lighter winds.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will rise Tuesday then
remain warm through Thursday. Min RHs will fall into the low teens
and single digits. Overnight recoveries will also dry, only in the
20s and 30s by mid week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ110-112>114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff