042
FXUS65 KFGZ 310521
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry and warm weather along with afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week. Over
the weekend we will see slightly stronger gusts compared to
Thursday and Friday with a passing weak weather disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...Expect tranquil weather conditions across northern
Arizona overnight with near-average temperatures and mostly clear
skies. Anticipate more cloud cover along the high terrain for
tomorrow afternoon with a slight chance for a stray rain/virga
shower. Breezy afternoon southwest winds, 15-30 mph, persist
through this weekend with 5 degree above average temperatures.
Besides for some tweaks to the high and low temperatures for
tonight and tomorrow, no other changes were made to the near-term
forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /436 PM MST/...In the short run not much to talk
about. Arizona will remain under a general west to southwest
flow. It will remain dry with day to day variations in those
afternoon winds as weak shortwave disturbances brush the state.
Later next week high pressure will build over the western state as
a weak low centaur meanders off the Baja California coast. The
result will be increasing heat and moisture starting Wednesday or
Thursday of next week.

For Friday into Tuesday...A mainly dry west to southwest flow will
remain over Arizona. Look for little change in daytime highs and
overnight lows. A passing disturbance will deliver gusty
afternoon winds on Saturday and Sunday, generally southwest at 10
to 20 mph gusting to around 30 mph. There will be just a touch of
moisture increase on Friday in advance of the disturbance for a
few extra afternoon cloud buildups and even a stray virga shower
or sprinkle.

From Wednesday onward...High pressure builds over the western
states as a weak low becomes stationed off the Baja California
coast. The pattern of high over the west and low off the coast
will generate south to southeast flow over Mexico and into
Arizona. The first impact of this pattern, and the one we`re most
confident in, will be to push a warmer air mass over Arizona from
over Mexican Plateau. The second less certain potential impact,
the southerly flow will extend so far south that a hint of
tropical Eastern Pacific moisture could find it`s way into
Arizona. What would be the results? The first, downright hot
weather looks to be headed for Arizona with the potential for the
first 110 F day in the low desert areas and mid to upper 80s in
the mountains. The second, with the increased moisture could see
a high-based thunderstorm day or two late next week. These would
be considered dry thunderstorms with not much rain but plenty of
lightning and gusty winds. We`ll see but definitely something to
keep track of.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 31/06Z through Saturday 01/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Patchy, high-based CU development over higher terrain
from 19Z-01Z. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25kts, otherwise light and
variable in the overnight and early morning periods.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 01/06Z through Monday 03/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts, otherwise light and
variable in the overnight and early morning periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday through Saturday...Above average temperatures
and dry conditions continue. Scattered mid-level cumulus development
Friday afternoon may produce some VIRGA, or a sprinkle, over higher
terrain. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon, with gusts to
25 mph. Gusts to 30 mph possible Saturday. Winds light and variable
in the overnight hours.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions each
day. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon, with gusts to 25
mph. Winds light and variable in the overnight hours.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff