019
FXUS65 KFGZ 302337
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
436 PM MST Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry and warm weather along with afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week. Over
the weekend we will see slightly stronger gusts compared to
Thursday and Friday with a passing weak weather disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...In the short run not much to talk about. Arizona
will remain under a general west to southwest flow. It will remain
dry with day to day variations in those afternoon winds as weak
shortwave disturbances brush the state. Later next week high
pressure will build over the western state as a weak low centaur
meanders off the Baja California coast. The result will be
increasing heat and moisture starting Wednesday or Thursday of
next week.

For Friday into Tuesday...A mainly dry west to southwest flow will
remain over Arizona. Look for little change in daytime highs and
overnight lows. A passing disturbance will deliver gusty
afternoon winds on Saturday and Sunday, generally southwest at 10
to 20 mph gusting to around 30 mph. There will be just a touch of
moisture increase on Friday in advance of the disturbance for a
few extra afternoon cloud buildups and even a stray virga shower
or sprinkle.

From Wednesday onward...High pressure builds over the western
states as a weak low becomes stationed off the Baja California
coast. The pattern of high over the west and low off the coast
will generate south to southeast flow over Mexico and into
Arizona. The first impact of this pattern, and the one we`re most
confident in, will be to push a warmer air mass over Arizona from
over Mexican Plateau. The second less certain potential impact,
the southerly flow will extend so far south that a hint of
tropical Eastern Pacific moisture could find it`s way into
Arizona. What would be the results? The first, downright hot
weather looks to be headed for Arizona with the potential for the
first 110 F day in the low desert areas and mid to upper 80s in
the mountains. The second, with the increased moisture could see
a high-based thunderstorm day or two late next week. These would
be considered dry thunderstorms with not much rain but plenty of
lightning and gusty winds. We`ll see but definitely something to
keep track of.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 31/00Z through Saturday 01/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25kts, otherwise light and
variable in the overnight and early morning periods.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 01/00Z through Monday 03/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts, otherwise light
and variable in the overnight and early morning periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Saturday...Warm and dry
conditions will continue through much of the period, with a non-zero
chance of high-base showers Friday afternoon. Minimum RH values 5-
15% with overnight recoveries 20-50%. Look for southwest winds 5-15
mph Friday afternoon, and slightly increasing on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions will
persist through at least mid-week. Minimum RH values generally
ranging from 5-15% each afternoon with overnight recoveries near 20-
40%. Southwest winds, gusting 20-25 mph, expected on Sunday,
becoming lighter Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff