722
FXUS64 KFWD 180438
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Saturday night/

The axis of a shortwave will shift east of the region overnight
while a mid level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence on the
backside of the departing shortwave will bring an end to all
precipitation chances overnight. The ground will remain moist
from recent rainfall, and the combination of a light wind and
a mostly clear sky will result in patchy, shallow fog overnight.
Fog is most likely to develop across the southeast zones where the
wind will remain calm and dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to
around 70 through the night. The fog may briefly become dense in
a few spots, especially towards sunrise. Any fog that does develop
will erode quickly after sunrise with vigorous boundary layer
mixing.

Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun,
pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A
light wind and shallow but abundant low level moisture will make
it feel even hotter with heat index values topping out in the
middle 90s for many. It will remain warm and humid Saturday night
with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across
the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing
southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by
drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and
humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the
week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat
indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.

Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a
pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak
cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely
bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south
of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain
north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front
farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will
provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt
of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model
guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection
appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the
Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to
severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to
training storms and localized flooding.

With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the
specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more
details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next
few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the
region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance
of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at
some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A building ridge aloft will yield VFR conditions at all TAF sites
through Saturday night with scattered high clouds and a few
daytime Cu. A light wind and mostly clear sky may result in
patchy and shallow morning fog in a few locations. Any significant
visibility restrictions should occur across the Brazos Valley,
southeast of Waco, where dewpoints are currently in the upper 60s
to around 70.

A south to southeast wind will continue at all TAF sites through
Saturday night at sustained speeds below 10 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  92  71  91  73 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                65  89  69  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               63  87  66  88  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              64  91  68  91  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            65  90  68  90  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  92  71  91  73 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  89  68  88  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  90  70  90  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              65  89  68  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  92  68  91  71 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$