632
FXUS64 KFWD 261855
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Memorial Day/

Storms in Central Texas, which survived well beyond the
traditional cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet, have
finally exited our southeastern zones. Despite an approaching
frontal boundary, strongly veered flow and reduced boundary layer
moisture will mean we will finally have a storm-free afternoon.
Although rich moisture will remain across Central and East Texas,
the front will lose its forward momentum, and the region should
remain well capped. CAMs have backed off on convection in East
Texas, and the plurality of guidance keeps the radar scope empty.

In areas of reduced humidity and full sun, temperatures will soar,
aided by vigorous downsloping winds. Wind speeds will tend to
diminish near peak heating as the boundary approaches, enhancing
temperatures just ahead of it. DFW`s forecast high is 99F, which
would match the record high for May 26, set previously in 1980.
Rain-soaked areas may not get as warm, particularly those in the
humid sector where there will also be daytime CU. The Heat
Advisory will remain intact even though the reduced afternoon
temperatures within it may prevent a few locations from reaching
criteria.

As the boundary experiences frontolysis overnight, wind speeds
will diminish further. And with clear skies, patchy ground fog
will likely develop within the humid air across Central and East
Texas, particularly in those areas that have seen significant
rainfall this weekend. This process may be accompanied by low
clouds, both of which should effectively burn off Monday morning,
and a bright sunny day will follow. Moisture will return to North
Texas and the Big Country, but the highest heat index values will
be within the Heat Advisory area. The enhanced boundary layer
moisture and unseasonal easterly winds will reduce daytime
temperatures from the previous day, but it will still be
uncomfortably muggy Memorial Day with lighter winds. Those who are
unaccustomed to spending time outdoors in the heat should take
all necessary precautions: wear light, loose-fitting clothing and
drink plenty of water. In addition, the UV will be intense,
equivalent to a similar day in mid-July.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/
Update:
The long-term discussion below remains on track. Expect low end
rain chances to return across portions of Central Texas by Monday
evening with more widespread daily chances for rain by the middle
of next week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible
at times, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast over the
next several days.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Memorial Day and Beyond/

By 00Z Monday (Sunday night), the cold front associated with the
shortwave moving across the Central Plains will still be lagging
well behind the associated surface low located near the Great
Lakes. This front, extending from the Upper Midwest into North
Texas, is projected to push south of the Red River early Monday
morning. With mid-level ascent mostly displaced well to the
northeast, forcing for ascent will generally be limited to the
surface boundary(ies). 12Z guidance continues to favor a
precipitation-free Memorial Day holiday (NBM PoPs < 10%), at least
until after dark. By the Monday evening, isentropic lift over the
shallow front in addition to ongoing warm air advection may lead
to some chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. We
will also need to monitor any convection developing along the
dryline, which will likely have retreated west towards the Edwards
Plateau as moisture advection continues ahead of the boundary. We
have maintained the low (20% or less) chance for showers and
thunderstorms across Central Texas (generally south of I-20) after
midnight.

Consolidation of an expanding mid-level ridge over the
Intermountain West and the subtropical high over Mexico combined
with troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians will result
in northwest flow aloft across the Plains. Ridge-topping
perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft in conjunction
with the sharpening dryline to the west and lingering frontal
boundary across Central Texas should provide sufficient forcing
for daily rain/storm chances. This pattern will support rounds of
thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain to our
west and northwest during the afternoon and evening tracking south
and east into North and Central Texas overnight and into the
daytime hours. The first shortwave is currently progged to arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday with additional waves arriving
nightly through the end of the week. Forecast soundings indicate
the environment may support severe weather though the finer
details including location and specific impacts will be difficult
to define at this stage especially for later periods as the
forecast will become increasingly affected by any remnant
boundaries/outflows from previous convection.

Given recent locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
multiple additional rounds of showers and storms next week
isolated flash and urban flooding impacts are also likely,
especially over areas that recently received heavy rainfall. With
regard to the recent bout of heat, as post-frontal dewpoints drop
slightly (upper 50s/60s across North TX and low/mid 70s across
Central TX) and temperatures peak in the low to mid 90s, heat
indices on Monday should be well below Heat Advisory criteria for
all but our southern row of counties. By Wednesday, with the aid
of precipitation and increasingly cloudy skies, highs will
generally be in the 80s region wide. The active pattern looks to
keep this "cool down" in place through the end of the month.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Wind shifts, but otherwise VFR with no significant concerns.
Potential for BR and IFR ceilings Monday morning at Waco.

Breezy southwesterly winds will gradually subside as a weak
frontal boundary approaches. Veering wind to the west and
eventually northwest will occur late in the day across D10. Light
northwest winds will veer further overnight to the northeast,
eventually becoming easterly by midday Monday. While a shift to
north flow will likely be required late this afternoon, Monday`s
winds should be light enough to allow for either flow
configuration. (The boundary is unlikely to make significant
changes to the wind direction in Central Texas.)

After nearly daily storm chances the past several days, no thunder
impacts are expected until Monday evening at the earliest (which
is currently beyond the scope of the TAFs). Clear skies will
prevail across D10 with cirrus arriving late Monday. Daytime CU
will occur at Waco. Waco may also experience a brief period of
ground fog and/or IFR ceilings Monday morning, but both should
remain south/east of the Metroplex (though they may encroach on
D10).

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  72  95  72  90 /  10   0   0  10  30
Waco                93  71  94  72  90 /  50   0   5  20  30
Paris               94  67  92  66  87 /  20   5   5  10  20
Denton              97  67  93  68  89 /  10   0   0  10  30
McKinney            99  68  92  68  88 /  10   0   0  10  30
Dallas              99  72  95  72  91 /  20   0   5  10  30
Terrell             97  71  92  69  89 /  30   0   5  10  20
Corsicana           93  74  93  73  92 /  30   0   5  20  20
Temple              92  72  95  71  90 /  40   0   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       97  67  94  69  90 /  10   0   0  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162-
174-175.

&&

$$