674
FXUS64 KFWD 240045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
745 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

A lone tornadic supercell continues to make progress through
Central Texas this evening within an environment characterized by
exceptional instability and locally maximized low-level shear and
helicity. This storm is likely to affect additional downstream
counties through the evening, and is unlikely to be significantly
affected by a loss of heating and diurnal increase in MLCIN. Back
to the west, dryline convection developed west of the forecast
area over the past few hours, but has begun to wane as it spread
eastward through the Concho Valley into a less favorable and more
stable environment. Additional cells also briefly developed along
the I-20 corridor along a northward-moving outflow boundary from
Central Texas convection earlier in the day, but a worked-over
environment over much of North Texas prevented these cells from
achieving deep convection, and have since dissipated. Following
the departure of the Central Texas supercell, the overnight period
is expected to be relatively quiet, with perhaps some isolated
redevelopment occurring in parts of North Texas in accordance
with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet.

A hot and humid day is in store for tomorrow, and heat index
values of 97-103 will be common across much of the area. By late
afternoon, a slow-moving frontal zone and dryline intersection
will move into northwestern portions of the CWA, offering a source
of lift to a highly unstable warm sector. Isolated to scattered
convective development is expected across portions of North Texas
by late afternoon, but convective coverage remains uncertain at
this time. All severe hazards would be possible with late
afternoon convection once again, as a supercellular storm mode
should dominate.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024/
/Friday through Thursday/

The weather pattern will remain active as we head into the
weekend with low level moisture staying in place and multiple
shortwaves moving though southwest flow aloft. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Friday along and ahead of a cold
front and dryline. The best storm chances will be during the late
afternoon and early evening, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. A
cap of warm air will limit/prevent storms from developing, but if
the cap breaks, storm could become strong to severe quickly,
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The loss of
surface heating and the passage of the shortwave will end storm
chances Friday evening.

Saturday morning should start out rain-free but another shortwave
will emerge out of West Texas in the afternoon while a dryline
approaches from the west. The best storm chances will be from the
Red River northward where the cap is most likely to break, but
there is at least a low potential for storms across most of North
Texas. Any storm that manages to develop will have potential to
become severe. Storms will shift eastward with the passing
shortwave Saturday night.

Sunday should be rain-free with no discernible source of lift on
either the synoptic or mesoscale. The passage of a shortwave
across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night will send a
cold front southward through the region on Memorial Day. We don`t
anticipate any storms with the front since moisture will be very
limited above 850 mb. However, there may be just enough moisture
across Central Texas for a few thunderstorms Monday evening. The
front will bring a temporary end to the oppressive humidity, with
dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday
morning. The front will lift slowly back to the north Tuesday
night through Wednesday, resulting in low level moisture return
and a return of thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will increase
Wednesday night through Thursday with the passage of a shortwave.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be generally in the
90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s. High
temperatures Memorial Day through Thursday will be slightly
cooler with mainly 80s and lower 90s. Lows will finally fall below
the 70s for most locations the first half of next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity was moving across
portions of D10 as of 00z, but has largely begun to dissipate with
minimal further potential for lightning in the vicinity. New
convection presently appears unlikely at the TAF sites themselves
during the overnight period, although isolated convection could
continue across parts of East and Central Texas for a few more
hours. Expect a return to widespread MVFR cigs tonight which will
persist until midday Friday. Scattering to VFR is expected by the
afternoon, with renewed chances for isolated convection within D10
after ~21z as frontal boundary and dryline approach from the
northwest. A brief period of VCTS has been introduced to address
this low potential near the end of the valid TAF period. Outside
of convective influences, a south/southwest wind will prevail at
10-20 kts.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  94  72  92  77 /  30  20  10  20  10
Waco                73  92  71  92  76 /  30  20  20   5   5
Paris               68  88  69  88  73 /  60  20  30  10  20
Denton              69  92  69  90  75 /  30  10   5  20  20
McKinney            71  91  70  90  75 /  40  20  10  10  20
Dallas              72  94  72  92  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
Terrell             71  90  71  90  75 /  50  20  20   0   5
Corsicana           74  92  73  92  77 /  30  20  20   0   5
Temple              74  92  72  93  75 /  20  30  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  96  68  93  74 /  20  10   5  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123-
130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$