747
FXUS64 KFWD 190646
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

A strong mid/upper-level ridge, currently extending from northern
Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will persist through
the end of the week even as a southern stream upper low prepares
to eject toward the Plains. At the surface, ridging to the east
and southeast will maintain the prevailing onshore low-level flow
yielding unseasonably hot and precipitation-free conditions
through the period. Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher
than yesterday with morning lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime
highs in the mid to upper 90s. With ambient temperatures running
as much as 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s, widespread triple digit heat indices are
expected both today and Friday. A Heat Advisory is not warranted
at this time, owing to the spotty coverage of criteria exceedance.
However, heat safety precautions should still be considered if
heading outdoors over the next few days.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/
/Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/

Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest
temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t
look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW,
Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within
a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts,
sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a
bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the
mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of
locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat
index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations
will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not
anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be
met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat
safety as the summer-like heat persists.

On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region
into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will
result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon,
with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold
front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend,
but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our
forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at
this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this
front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday.
Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be
needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain
chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas
Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our
west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if
confidence in FROPA for our area increases.

Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what
next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be
closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front
towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and
storms returning around the same time.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns over the next 30 hours as strengthening high
pressure aloft maintains VFR and light south winds AOB 10 kts. A
few occasional gusts to 15-20kt are possible during the afternoon.
Could see some MVFR CIGs develop towards daybreak this morning across
Central Texas, impacting KAUS and likely nearing KGRK, but the
stratus deck should remain well south of KACT. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies expected with some fair weather cumulus possible
through the afternoon.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  99  77  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  98  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  96  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  99  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77 100  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  99  73  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  98  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  98  72  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  99  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$