577
FXUS64 KFWD 172047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
347 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Another warm and generally sunny day is in store for all of North
and Central Texas. A batch of widespread stratus overtook our
northeastern counties this morning, but this cloud cover should
gradually mix out through the late morning into the early
afternoon thanks to boundary layer processes resuming. Otherwise,
expect highs today in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 70s.

There is a low chance (around 10% or less) for isolated showers
well to our southwest, as per some of the latest CAM guidance.
It`s likely that this will remain limited to some very isolated
virga due to how shallow any convection would be, especially with
dry air in place at the surface. Confidence is quite low with
regards to this activity. Decided to keep the previous forecast
thought process going and opted to leave mentionable PoPs out.

Tomorrow will be a rinse and repeat of today, except with
slightly higher temperatures given more widespread subsidence and
southeasterly flow at the surface. Highs will climb into the mid
to upper 90s for much of the region, with sunny skies prevailing.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above
the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the
West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with
rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All
available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s
in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above
freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would
challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local
weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951.
Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature
anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer,
combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September,
may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs
(values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near
100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco.
Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late
in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values
occurring on Friday.

An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although
its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas
Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an
influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon
temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the
potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some
locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade
from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers
are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast.

Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While
this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits,
temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that
cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on
Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among
operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for
a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out
the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues
to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for September 20 (Friday)
   DFW       102 in 1953
   Waco      101 in 2021
   Killeen   100 in 2021

(DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.)

Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year,
each location has only reached the century mark this late in the
year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR has returned and will prevail across all TAF sites through
the period. Ceilings have rapidly improved this morning with the
initiation of daytime mixing. That being said, some lingering
MVFR/IFR will exist through the early afternoon for portions of
the Bonham cornerpost. Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies and
winds less than 10 knots from the east-southeast through tomorrow.

Reeves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  91  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  96  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  95  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  97  73  97  73 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  96  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$