255
FXUS64 KFWD 170611
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

Warm, tranquil weather will persist across North Central Texas
once again today, thanks to the presence of a stout shortwave
ridge draped across the region. An easterly low level flow regime
will advect slightly milder air westward into the area from
Arkansas and Louisiana through the day, mitigating this
afternoon`s temperature climb versus what would otherwise be
expected from the current degree of subsidence. Nevertheless,
readings across the western and southern counties should rise
into the mid 90s by late afternoon, which is several degrees above
seasonal norms.

The current low level flow is also bringing an expanse of low
clouds westward into the northeastern counties of the forecast
area. By daybreak, scattered to broken cloudiness should exist
generally east of a Gainesville to Rockwall to Canton line. Most
of these clouds will erode by later morning, yielding mostly sunny
conditions in all areas. Some of the CAM guidance is suggesting
the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms across our
far west and southwest counties. However, the source of forcing
for this convection is hard to discern, and given the low
confidence, have opted to leave PoPs out of the current forecast
for this afternoon/evening.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

An upper ridge will dominate the forecast period through most of the
long term, keeping temperatures above normal (highs in the mid to
upper 90s) and rain chances minimal. Plenteous gulf moisture will
keep the mornings warm and muggy (lows in the 70s). There`s some
hint in the models for rain this weekend as an upper low swings
through the four corners region, but currently chances are in the
10-15% range.

Day

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites through 12z
Wednesday, as upper level high pressure continues to dominate. An
area of MVFR ceilings is slowly advancing westward out of Arkansas
and Northwest Louisiana early this morning. A few leading shreds
of stratus associated with this cloud mass may reach the eastern
portion of D10, particularly KDAL, by 12z. However, am skeptical
that enough cloudiness will arrive in order to justify a mention
of BKN/OVC conditions at any Metroplex TAF site, so have omitted
any mention of ceilings. The cloud mass northeast through east of
the D10 area should largely erode by midday, yielding VFR
conditions.

A light east-southeast flow regime should persist at all TAF sites through
midday, likely backing to a modest east-northeast direction after
17z.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  91  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  95  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  96  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             71  95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  96  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$