Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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339 FXUS64 KFWD 101813 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ A weak surface cold front moved through North Texas early this morning and has stalled over Central Texas. A few showers and storms have developed near the cold front in Central Texas with additional showers and storms ongoing over North Texas in the vicinity of the elevated cold front between the 950-850 mb layer. These trends (scattered popup showers and storms) are expected to continue through the afternoon and early evening, with hit/miss showers and storms expanding across most of the region later today. Instability is weak, with narrow CAPE profiles and meager lapse rates aloft. Moreover, there is very little deep-layer shear so the convective mode should remain unorganized with a very low threat of strong or severe storms. Our main concern will be bouts of heavy rain that may lead to flooding, particularly if it falls over locations that are already experiencing lingering flooding from earlier rain events. Most of the storms should dissipate within an hour or two of sunset this evening. Our attention will shift to the west where a MCS, or at least a disorganized cluster of storms, is forecast to develop near the New Mexico/Texas border this afternoon and move east across the state tonight. This system will be aided by a well-organized shortwave trough which should provide enough ascent to sustain convective activity through the night. The leading edge of this line should be aided by a decent cold pool that will eventually out-pace the shortwave trough by the time it approaches the I-35 corridor around sunrise (give or take a couple hours). This will leave our area under broad mid-level ascent with a stalled surface boundary from the early morning storms. Another day of scattered showers and storms is expected tomorrow, with initial convective initiation areas taking place near the stalled boundary and ahead of the shortwave trough. The addition of the shortwave trough will bring a little more mid and upper-level shear, ever so slightly nudging up the potential for a few strong storms in the afternoon. The additional cloud cover and precipitation will result in lower temperatures the next two days, with highs generally in the mid 80s, although a few sites across Central Texas will peak in the low 90s. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s across Central Texas where dewpoints remain in the mid 70s during peak heating. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The storm chances mentioned in the short term discussion will continue Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for areas primarily west of I-35, before tapering off as North & Central TX shifts into a rain-free period following the departure of the upper level shortwave. Ridging will expand overhead and result in warming temperatures and no meaningful rain chances midweek onward. Highs will climb into the 80s for one more day Wednesday (a few degrees below normal) before reaching the low/mid 90s each afternoon through the workweek. The heat will continue into the weekend with slightly higher moisture on Sunday likely resulting in heat indices near or in excess of the triple digit mark for many areas. Isolated sea breeze activity may also reach parts of the Brazos Valley over the weekend, but coverage will remain low. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings currently blanket most of North Texas, but expect most of the ceilings to lift/scatter over the next 1-2 hours. A couple weak cold fronts (one over Central Texas and another over North Texas) has helped develop scattered showers/storms early this afternoon, with surface heating helping to develop additional storms through the afternoon. There is very little instability over the area so most of the storms should be short-lived and unorganized. Due to this and the hit/miss nature of the precip today, we were not confident enough to add on-station TS to the D10 TAFs...but did add a TS TEMPO at ACT with the front being closer to the terminal. Most of the storms will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening before a cluster of storms moves into the region from the west in the early morning hours. This should largely miss the D10 terminals but will likely move over ACT near/before sunrise. A leftover boundary will stall in the area, allowing for another day of popup showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 73 86 70 89 / 50 20 30 20 10 Waco 89 72 87 70 86 / 50 20 40 20 20 Paris 83 67 86 64 88 / 40 0 10 5 5 Denton 81 69 84 67 89 / 50 10 30 20 10 McKinney 82 69 86 67 88 / 50 10 20 10 10 Dallas 85 73 87 70 89 / 50 20 30 20 10 Terrell 84 71 86 67 88 / 50 20 20 10 10 Corsicana 88 73 88 70 88 / 50 20 30 10 10 Temple 91 72 89 70 87 / 50 20 40 20 20 Mineral Wells 83 70 85 68 88 / 50 20 50 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$