502
FXUS64 KFWD 191045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A swath of light rain and attendant cloud cover is beginning to
encroach on our southeast zones this morning on the far northern
periphery of the western Gulf tropical low pressure system. Have
continued to trend PoPs and rain totals downward overnight, and
also removed most mentions of thunder from the public forecast
with this morning`s update. While this system will not provide
much of the area with meaningful rainfall over the next 48 hours,
it will offer an increase in cloud cover helping to hold this
afternoon`s highs in the 80s for most locations. Otherwise, the
Central Plains convective complex still underway in the Panhandle
and northern Oklahoma will not have any effect on our sensible
weather locally.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

Rain chances on the far outer periphery of PTC One continue to
wane within our forecast area. The greatest moisture content with
this feature has trended more westward with each passing model
run as the system drifts towards the Texas Coastal Bend. Total
rain amounts within our CWA over the next 48 hours will range from
0" in much of North Texas, to perhaps around 0.5" in our southern
Central Texas zones. No severe weather or flooding issues are
forecast. The good news is that a substantial increase in cloud
cover will offer a rare mid-June day with highs in the 80s, along
with a decent easterly breeze. This cloud cover will begin
departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound
into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is
replaced by a strengthening upper ridge.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will build
southwest into North and Central Texas starting Thursday night,
providing hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the weekend.
Another easterly wave will develop over the northwest Gulf and
move inland over Mexico and South Texas early next week.
Unfortunately, it will only increase dewpoints and heat indices
locally, while the ridge shuts off any convective attempts and
shunts all precipitation to our south.

Triple digit heat index values will begin on Saturday, and will
increase a little each afternoon Sunday through the first half of
next week. Heat Advisory criteria looks like a good bet starting
Monday, and conditions will only worsen Tuesday and next
Wednesday. Several spots may even reach or exceed Excessive Heat
Warning criteria (heat index 110 or greater) sometime around the
middle of next week. One potential source of relief may occur
Tuesday or next Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts west of the
forecast area, placing a northwest flow regime overhead. This
could bring a storm complex or two southeast into the area and
provide at least a temporary reprieve. Otherwise it looks like the
first week of astronomical summer will begin with a hot streak.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Very patchy low stratus around 3 kft currently exists across
parts of North Texas, but is unlikely to result in cigs at D10 TAF
sites this morning. A greater potential for cigs below 3 kft will
exist at Waco and areas to the southwest, before additional VFR
cigs spread into most of the airports later this morning. Partial
scattering of the low deck may occur heading into the afternoon
while light precipitation falling from a mid cloud deck pivots
northwestward into the area. Rain chances are too low to include
at Metroplex TAF sites, but will carry a window of VCSH at Waco
where showers should be more numerous through the afternoon and
evening. A modest easterly breeze of 5-10 kts with occasional
higher gusts will prevail through the period. Winds may take on a
more northeasterly direction at D10 airports later this evening
while remaining below 10 kts.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  77  92  76  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Waco                82  75  91  74  92 /  30  20  10   5   5
Paris               86  74  91  72  93 /  10   5   5   0   0
Denton              89  74  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   0
McKinney            88  74  92  73  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Dallas              88  77  93  76  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Terrell             85  74  92  73  93 /  20  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           85  77  94  74  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Temple              81  74  91  73  92 /  50  30  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       88  74  91  73  92 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$