915
FXUS64 KFWD 181035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
High-based convection ahead of a Central Plains shortwave has
overachieved with aid from steep lapse rates, and has spread into
western North Texas overnight. While this activity has largely
been on a downward trend the last couple of hours and is no longer
producing lightning, we`ll carry some less than 20% PoPs across
the northwest in case any light precip is able to survive into the
the forecast area this morning. Based on the current radar
depiction, much of this activity is likely falling as virga at
this time.

Otherwise, we continue to cut back rainfall totals associated
with the midweek tropical system, as this low pressure area is
forecast to track farther south which will limit rainfall amounts
within the CWA. Any minor flood risk would likely remain confined
to the southern fringes of the forecast area for Wednesday.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

A low pressure system of tropical origin will make westward
progress from the Gulf of Mexico into southern portions of Texas
over the next 36 hours, steered by weak mid-level easterlies.
While the greatest effects of this system will remain well south
of the CWA, it will still offer some rain chances during the
midweek period, along with slightly cooler temperatures due to
attendant widespread cloud cover. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across our southeastern zones this
afternoon on the far outer periphery of this feature, and should
be quite similar in coverage to Monday afternoon`s convective
activity. Following an intrusion of morning stratus, partial
clearing during the afternoon will allow highs to climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Greater moisture content and a shield of light/moderate rainfall
will spread into the area by Wednesday morning, and
broken/overcast skies will hold highs in the low/mid 80s for most
locations. Rain amounts will be highest across our Central Texas
zones where isolated totals of 1-2" are possible. The greatest
rain totals and highest flooding threat will remain south of the
forecast area. Most of North Texas will see rainfall totals around
a quarter inch or less, with some of our northwestern zones
possibly remaining dry altogether. The greatest rain chances will
occur from Wednesday morning into the afternoon before this
activity shifts progressively farther to the west heading into
Wednesday night.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 423 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

MVFR cigs are slowly beginning to fill in across North and Central
Texas, but the highest coverage of stratus remains west of the TAF
sites at this time. Cigs at the TAF sites themselves may be
fairly short-lived this morning, and will maintain Tempo groups
through 15z to address occasional cigs near 2 kft. Improvement to
VFR is expected at all airports by midday while a southeast
breeze of 10-20 kts prevails. Wind speeds will decrease some this
evening while becoming increasingly easterly. A rain shield will
begin spreading into the area early tomorrow morning associated
with a tropical low pressure system to our south, but any rain
chances at the TAF sites will be just after the current valid
forecast period. Cigs are expected to remain at VFR heights
tomorrow morning, with degraded categories perhaps accompanying
precip later in the day.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  75  88  75  90 /   5   5  30  20  10
Waco                90  73  83  74  87 /  10  10  60  40  20
Paris               89  71  85  73  90 /  10   5  20  10   5
Denton              91  72  88  72  89 /   5   5  30  20  10
McKinney            91  72  87  73  90 /   5   5  20  20   5
Dallas              92  75  87  75  91 /   5   5  30  20   5
Terrell             90  72  85  73  90 /  10   5  30  20   5
Corsicana           91  75  85  75  90 /  20  10  50  20   5
Temple              91  73  82  72  87 /  10  10  60  50  30
Mineral Wells       90  72  88  72  87 /   5   5  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$