Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
047 FXUS64 KFWD 192349 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 649 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ Above-normal temperatures will remain the primary weather story through tomorrow as a mid level ridge continues to strengthen overhead. 5900+ meter 500mb heights will encompass all of the forecast area through the start of the weekend. Temperatures will be generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal as a result, with lows in the 70s tonight and highs in the mid and upper 90s (a few spots likely hitting 100) on Friday. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will yield widespread heat indices of 100 to 105 Friday afternoon. Those who have outdoor events planned are urged to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade. For Friday night football, temperatures will start out in the lower 90s and gradually fall into the lower to mid 80s through the evening. Otherwise, North and Central Texas will remain wedged between a stationary front in the Panhandle and a surface ridge off to our east, keeping winds generally out of the south at 5 to 15 MPH. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ /Saturday Onward/ Unseasonably hot weather will continue over the weekend in the presence of anomalous mid-level heights. A few locations will reach or exceed 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon while heat index values climb to 100-105. A shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains will aid in eroding the ridge axis from the north by Sunday, helping to drop temperatures a couple of degrees while also increasing mid/high cloud cover during peak heating. A front associated with this trough will encroach on the CWA late in the day and slowly proceed into North Texas heading into Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should accompany this feature, and PoPs have been increased from previous forecasts for the Sunday night into Monday period. As the front stalls through the area during the first half of the week, it will support a couple of additional opportunities for rainfall through at least Wednesday. A vague overrunning regime could materialize as the front progressively loses its identity, while northwest flow prevails aloft. Despite the lack of any noteworthy cool post-frontal air, the increased cloud cover should be sufficient to hold highs in the 80s for many areas during the first half of the workweek. Signs point toward a return to stronger upper ridging by the end of the week, although this will depend largely on the eventual evolution of any possible tropical system in the Gulf. For this reason, the forecast beyond day 6 contains abnormally high uncertainty. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Surface winds will remain generally out of the south at 5-10kt with occasional gusts of 15kt. VFR can otherwise be expected as high pressure aloft continues to dominate the region. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 97 73 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 97 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 99 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 74 99 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 79 99 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 73 99 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 98 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 97 72 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 97 72 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$