666
FXUS64 KFWD 152327
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tuesday Morning/

Over the last few hours, scattered showers and storms have spread
near and south of a weak surface boundary that is draped across
western North Texas and Central Texas. This will continue over
the next couple hours as peak diurnal heating begins to be lost.
Severe weather is unlikely, though a few more strong storms
capable of gusty downburst winds, frequent lightning, and brief,
heavy rain will be possible through sundown. Any lingering shower
or storm across Central Texas and the Big Country will dissipate
later this evening. The aforementioned weak front will continue to
meander southwest across the rest of Central Texas overnight,
putting the entire region into east-to-northeast flow at the
surface and low-levels. The upslope component of the easterly
winds will help to keep us a tad cooler than the previous night,
with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s expected.

Over the day Monday, the broad mid-level ridge to our west will
continue to sharpen and build further east into the Southern
Plains. This will promote dry conditions and near-to-above normal
temperatures across North and Central Texas through the rest of
the short term forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will peak
in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Some guidance highlights isolated
convection to our east during the afternoon hours. While majority
of guidance keeps this activity out of our CWA, have included a
silent 10% for our East Texas and eastern Central Texas counties
to account for the low potential for a stray shower to venture
further west. We`ll keep an eye on future model guidance for more
certainty and adjust as necessary.

Otherwise, the forecast period will end quietly with another
lukewarm, muggy morning on Tuesday. Morning lows will once again
bottom out in the mid-upper 60s for most, while areas in the urban
heat island of the DFW Metroplex will only drop to the low 70s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work
week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures
will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the
mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be
especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period,
resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only
falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the
triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday
through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are
currently expected through the end of the work week.

There is a glimmer of hope that we`ll return to a more active
pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works
to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings
low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm
chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and
keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus
over the next several days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Scattered showers and storms have blossomed across western North
Texas and throughout Central Texas over the last several hours.
While coverage will begin to wane through the evening, this
activity will continue to impact ACT through around 2Z, but remain
west of the D10 TAF sites. Northeasterly winds at D10 and
westerly winds at ACT will settle out of the E-SE later this
evening, but speeds should stay around 5 KTS or less to preclude
flow changes.

A deck of MVFR stratus is likely to spread across East Texas
overnight, approaching the eastern D10 sites (GKY/DAL/DFW) near
daybreak. While probabilities of MVFR cigs at the terminals
remain below 30-40% and guidance is not keen on bringing them to
the TAF sites, have introduced a TEMPO between 13-16Z at the
aforementioned sites to account for any further westward
expansion.

Otherwise, winds are expected to shift back to the northeast by
12Z Monday, with afternoon conditions remaining VFR.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  90  71  90  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  93  69  94  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  86  68  86  67 /   0  10   0   0   0
Denton              67  90  67  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            67  90  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              70  91  70  91  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             67  89  68  89  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  91  70  92  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  94  69  95  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  92  67  92  69 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$