Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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355 FXUS64 KFWD 160646 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ Local radar imagery shows that the scattered convection that developed across portions of Central Texas and the Hill Country Sunday afternoon and early evening has dissipated given the loss of daytime heating and weak forcing. The remainder of the overnight period should be precipitation-free with generally mostly clear skies and light east/northeast winds which should yield morning lows a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The persistent low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, remnants of Francine, is beginning to drift further southwest as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight nears the coast of the Carolinas. This will allow for wrap-around moisture/clouds to shift westward this morning, resulting in a cloudy start across parts of East Texas and maybe even as far west as the eastern Metroplex. Situated between a seasonably strong mid-level low dropping along the northern California coastline and a weak Rex Block meandering over the eastern U.S., mid/upper level ridging will prevail through the period. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures to continue with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For mid September, the average high/low at DFW and Waco are 89/69F and 91/67F, respectively. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/ Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period, resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are currently expected through the end of the work week. There is a glimmer of hope that we`ll return to a more active pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus over the next several days. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Aviation Concerns: MVFR CIGs approaching the eastern DFW Metroplex around daybreak. Moisture arriving via east-northeasterly low-level winds will likely result in MVFR and even some IFR CIGs advecting south and west into far East Texas before daybreak. The probability of MVFR ceilings reaching the eastern North Texas terminals (including KDFW, KDAL, and KGRK) remains low (~20-30%), though given the orientation of low-level flow and upstream observations we cannot rule out some westward expansion of at least high-end MVFR ceilings. Have maintained the previously introduced TEMPO for lowered ceilings for 12-16Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected to persist through the period with wind speeds remaining light (at or below 10 kts) with continued variability between E-NE and E-SE. For Waco...VFR will prevail with light east-northeasterly winds at or below 10 kts. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 71 90 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 93 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 87 68 86 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 91 67 91 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 68 90 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 92 70 92 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 90 68 90 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 92 70 93 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 95 69 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 67 92 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$