084
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

An upper level ridge will continue to strengthen through the end
of this week, leading to increasingly warmer temperatures each
afternoon. Highs will range in the mid to upper 90s for most of
North and Central Texas, with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 mph with gusts upwards of 20
mph will be possible both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions and generally sunny skies
outside of some fair weather cumulus. There is a low chance for
some low lying stratus tomorrow morning across portions of Central
Texas, but this will generally remain impact-free for most.

Temperatures will continue to be on the rise on Thursday, which
is abnormal for this time of year. A few sites may even hit the
century mark out west tomorrow, so it will certainly not feel like
we are only days away from the autumnal equinox.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/

Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest
temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t
look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW,
Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within
a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts,
sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a
bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the
mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of
locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat
index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations
will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not
anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be
met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat
safety as the summer-like heat persists.

On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region
into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will
result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon,
with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold
front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend,
but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our
forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at
this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this
front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday.
Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be
needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain
chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas
Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our
west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if
confidence in FROPA for our area increases.

Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what
next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be
closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front
towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and
storms returning around the same time.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 112 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Low Chance For MVFR Across Waco Tomorrow Morning.

VFR will generally prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Southerly flow has more or less been reestablished across
the region, around 10 knots with occasionally higher gusts
possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, expect sunny skies with
passing fair weather cumulus. There is a low chance (<20%) of
MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings across portions of Central Texas
tomorrow morning. This may briefly impact Waco through 13-16z.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               70  95  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  98  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              76  99  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  97  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  98  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  98  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$