Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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618 FXUS64 KFWD 261036 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Current forecast on track, as fast-moving scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have produced environmental southerly wind gusts from precipitation rapidly evaporating within a very unstable airmass across the DFW Metro and surrounding areas. This should only last 1-2 hours (at most), then settle back down as convective activity transitions very fast to the east at around 50 mph. Otherwise, will maintain the Heat Advisory through early Monday evening for eastern Central Texas. 05/Marty Previous Discussion: /The Remainder Of The Holiday Weekend/ After a busy evening with a long track supercell over our far northern counties, we now await more storms now forming in an area of high instability(particularly aloft) and strong westerly shear across West-Central Texas associated with the next shortwave disturbance aloft. These storms will be able to produce large hail and some gusty winds as we move into the predawn hours and sunrise across primarily western Central Texas. This activity could move as far north as the DFW Metroplex by dawn if the NAM12 is accurate, which right now it`s handling the current storms better than the rest. These storms will weaken and dissipate by mid morning as subsidence behind the wave and the loss of strong low level southerly flow just above the surface wanes. Otherwise, a hot day with well above normal temperatures are expected as low level winds from the surface through 925mb veer southwesterly but remain breezy through afternoon with strong downslope for much of the area. Drier air intruding into areas west of I-35 will push highs into the upper 90s which will push record highs for the date. Further east into the more humid airmass, highs will still reach the lower-mid 90s. Heat indices across much of eastern Central Texas from I-35 to the Trinity River Valley will see heat index values reach to between 105-110 degrees both this afternoon and Monday afternoon as well. I added Hill, Navarro, and Henderson counties on the north side of the previous advisory, as highs remain in the lower-mid 90s with tropical-like humidity continuing. Brief shortwave ridging should take hold tonight into Monday keeping the area precipitation/storm-free with patchy fog across our East Texas areas early in the morning. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s west through north of DFW in the "storm outflow- washed" airmass, with unaffected areas further to the southeast only falling into the lower-mid 70s. Winds will be quite breezy again this evening before a brief backdoor front helped by storm outflow to the E-NE of the area helping to knock winds down and from the NE at 5-10 mph across North Texas and S at 5 to 10 mph across Central Texas. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ Update: The long-term discussion below remains on track. Expect low end rain chances to return across portions of Central Texas by Monday evening with more widespread daily chances for rain by the middle of next week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast over the next several days. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Memorial Day and Beyond/ By 00Z Monday (Sunday night), the cold front associated with the shortwave moving across the Central Plains will still be lagging well behind the associated surface low located near the Great Lakes. This front, extending from the Upper Midwest into North Texas, is projected to push south of the Red River early Monday morning. With mid-level ascent mostly displaced well to the northeast, forcing for ascent will generally be limited to the surface boundary(ies). 12Z guidance continues to favor a precipitation-free Memorial Day holiday (NBM PoPs < 10%), at least until after dark. By the Monday evening, isentropic lift over the shallow front in addition to ongoing warm air advection may lead to some chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. We will also need to monitor any convection developing along the dryline, which will likely have retreated west towards the Edwards Plateau as moisture advection continues ahead of the boundary. We have maintained the low (20% or less) chance for showers and thunderstorms across Central Texas (generally south of I-20) after midnight. Consolidation of an expanding mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West and the subtropical high over Mexico combined with troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians will result in northwest flow aloft across the Plains. Ridge-topping perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft in conjunction with the sharpening dryline to the west and lingering frontal boundary across Central Texas should provide sufficient forcing for daily rain/storm chances. This pattern will support rounds of thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain to our west and northwest during the afternoon and evening tracking south and east into North and Central Texas overnight and into the daytime hours. The first shortwave is currently progged to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with additional waves arriving nightly through the end of the week. Forecast soundings indicate the environment may support severe weather though the finer details including location and specific impacts will be difficult to define at this stage especially for later periods as the forecast will become increasingly affected by any remnant boundaries/outflows from previous convection. Given recent locally heavy rainfall and the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and storms next week isolated flash and urban flooding impacts are also likely, especially over areas that recently received heavy rainfall. With regard to the recent bout of heat, as post-frontal dewpoints drop slightly (upper 50s/60s across North TX and low/mid 70s across Central TX) and temperatures peak in the low to mid 90s, heat indices on Monday should be well below Heat Advisory criteria for all but our southern row of counties. By Wednesday, with the aid of precipitation and increasingly cloudy skies, highs will generally be in the 80s region wide. The active pattern looks to keep this "cool down" in place through the end of the month. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ The northern edge of a decaying line of SHRA/TSRA has resulted in environmental surface winds being ramped up to 50kts plus for a 1-2 hour period at the start of the 12z TAF cycle. MVFR cigs will continue to impact particularly the eastern D10 airports including DFW through just past daybreak, before veering surface winds become SW 10-15 kts with subsidence allow VFR conditions to return. A backdoor outflow boundary tonight should settle winds down from the E/NE 5-7 kts which may produce patchy BR/FG, but confidence is too low to add attm. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 73 94 72 90 / 20 0 0 10 30 Waco 95 71 94 72 90 / 30 0 5 20 30 Paris 91 67 90 66 87 / 5 5 5 10 20 Denton 97 69 92 68 89 / 20 0 0 10 30 McKinney 95 69 91 68 88 / 20 0 0 10 30 Dallas 98 72 94 72 91 / 20 0 0 10 30 Terrell 92 71 91 69 89 / 20 0 5 10 20 Corsicana 93 73 92 73 92 / 10 0 5 20 20 Temple 95 72 95 71 90 / 20 0 5 20 20 Mineral Wells 98 66 93 69 90 / 10 0 0 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162- 174-175. && $$