Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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059 FXUS64 KFWD 231659 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Tonight/ Thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas late this morning in an area of high instability and rich moisture. The storms are being aided by a subtle shortwave rotating through the region. We have seen a few low end severe storms this morning and it does look like daytime heating is helping intensify the storms currently. This trend will likely continue through the afternoon. The unknown is how far north convection will develop since this broken complex of storms may rob North Texas of the best moisture and instability and result in weak subsidence on the northern periphery. Many of the CAMs including the HRRR, have picked up on this but there is still a chance that northward moving outflow boundaries and afternoon heating could produce scattered storms across North Texas. Therefore, we will keep chance PoPs through the afternoon for nearly all zones. Any storms that do develop this afternoon have a potential to produce hail and gusty winds. There is a lesser tornado threat than yesterday, but still non- zero. Ample moisture will also keep the threat for flooding elevated, especially in locations that saw heavy rainfall yesterday so we will keep the Flood Watch in place. Storms will exit the region to the northeast during the evening with passing shortwave energy and the loss of surface heating. One thing that has been interesting this morning is strong and gusty winds far removed from the convection, likely a result of a wake low. We have actually seen some 40+ mph winds and minor damage in a few spots. Outside of the storms, it will be partly to mostly cloudy, very warm and humid through tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ /Friday Onward/ Zonal flow aloft will be in place on Friday while a shortwave in the Central and Northern Pains helps advance the dryline east into western portions of North and Central Texas. Conditions will be exceptionally humid east of the dryline as dewpoints climb well into the 70s. The resulting heat indices will be around 100 degrees by Friday afternoon as ambient temperatures climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Strong flow aloft (around 90kt at 250mb), 50+ knots of effective shear, the presence of the dryline, and a highly unstable airmass will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. There will be a decent cap in place, but it is likely that a few cells will overcome it and quickly become severe. Wind profiles support supercell development with large hail the primary concern. Damaging winds and heavy rain/flooding may also occur, while high surface dewpoints and low LCLs could very well support a tornado or two. As far as timing and location: recent CAMs have focused on convective initiation near or just west of the I-35 corridor beginning around peak heating (~4 PM). Storms would then spread east through and east of the I-35 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours, eventually dissipating around midnight Friday night. Another oppressive day is in store for Saturday, with the dryline having shifted farther west in response to a shortwave trough lifting northeast through the Four Corners region. More thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the dryline Saturday afternoon, with convective initiation likely somewhere across the Big Country. A stronger cap will be in place on Saturday, which will work against convective development, but a few storms will likely break through and become severe late afternoon into Saturday evening. The best storm chances will be north of the I-20 corridor where the cap will be weakest. The highest severe threat may end up along the Red River area, where the better forcing will occur as the shortwave continues northeast through the Central and Southern Plains. A reprieve from the active weather can be expected on Sunday as subsidence takes over in the wake of the departing shortwave. The highest temperatures of the period will also occur Sunday afternoon as highs range from the lower 90s near Paris to the upper 90s in the western-most zones. SLightly lower dewpoints should help offset the higher temperatures, hopefully keeping heat index values just below 100. A stronger shortwave trough will then swing through the Plains Sunday night, pushing a cold front south through all of the region in time for Memorial Day. Convection will be difficult to attain due to the overnight passage of the front and the cap being exceptionally strong. Will still include some low POPs across the east where a few isolated storms may still occur. The front will otherwise bring some relief in the form of drier air and more seasonable temperatures for the first half of next week. The dryline will eventually come into play again around Wednesday of next week, when more thunderstorms will be possible as the next upper level disturbance passes through. This will begin what appears to be another active period for the second half of next week and the final days of May. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ The main aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be thunderstorm placement and timing. A broken complex of storms will continue to impact Waco though mid-afternoon and possibly beyond. Storms will be less certain across the Metroplex TAF sites since the Central Texas complex is currently producing some weak subsidence on the north side and disrupting the influx of moisture. We could still see some storms in the vicinity of the Metroplex TAF sites during peak heating (20Z - 00Z) but coverage should be limited. All storms will dissipate or move northeast of the region during the evening, leaving the overnight period rain- free. Low ceilings will continue to scatter across D10 through the afternoon, leaving scattered to broken Cu above 3000 ft and plenty of high clouds. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the evening with MVFR to IFR stratus returning overnight/Friday morning. A south wind will prevail between 10 and 16 knots along with some gusts just above 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 74 93 73 92 / 50 30 20 20 20 Waco 87 73 91 73 92 / 50 20 20 30 5 Paris 84 69 88 69 88 / 50 50 20 30 10 Denton 85 72 93 71 90 / 50 30 20 20 20 McKinney 85 72 90 72 89 / 50 40 20 30 20 Dallas 88 73 93 73 91 / 50 30 20 30 10 Terrell 86 72 90 72 89 / 40 40 20 30 5 Corsicana 88 74 92 74 92 / 50 30 20 30 5 Temple 89 74 92 73 93 / 40 10 20 30 5 Mineral Wells 86 73 93 70 93 / 50 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123- 130>135-141>148-156>161. && $$