971
FXUS64 KFWD 210042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
742 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

A relatively tranquil night is in-store for North and Central
Texas as shortwave ridging moves across the region. After the
mid-level ridge moves east tomorrow morning, mid-level height
falls will overspread the region in advance of a deeper trough
over the Western CONUS, setting the stage for a few active weather
days locally.

Breezy south winds have developed in response to a deepening low
near the panhandles. The low will continue to deepen overnight,
resulting in gusty winds through the night. Gulf stratus will
develop over the Hill Country before midnight and overspread most
of our forecast area early Thursday morning. A combination of the
breezy winds, cloud cover, and warm/moist advection will result in
a mild and humid start to the day tomorrow. Tomorrow will be
another hot and humid day with highs near 90 and heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s.

There is a low chance of severe storms tomorrow afternoon across
western North and Central Texas. A dryline over West Texas will be
drawn east and stall near our westernmost counties in the mid to
late afternoon. The warm sector will be under a strong capping
inversion based around 5 kft agl. The cap will prevent storms from
initiating for most of the day, with only a 20% chance of storms
developing along the dryline after 4 PM. Although the chance of
storms developing is low, any storm that develops would be in an
environment capable of supporting large hail and a few damaging
wind gusts. Storms are most likely to develop between about Graham
and Cisco, an hour or two after the surface winds back into the
boundary. As storms move east off the boundary, they will move
into an increasingly capped atmosphere, particularly after sunset
when surface-based convective inhibition increases. This should
limit how far east the storms are able to travel and allow all
storms to weaken/dissipate between 9 PM and midnight. For now, we
have stopped the mention of thunderstorms near I-35/35W.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Another shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the
wake of a departing impulse on Wednesday, ushering a cold front
south through the region. The exact southward extent of the front
is still uncertain as ensemble guidance has the front just barely
making it into our northwestern counties, while the NAM has it
essentially bisecting our region before stalling as its upper
level support races off to the northeast. Nonetheless, lift from
the front will allow for showers and storms, some strong to
severe, near and along the boundary as it moves south through the
afternoon hours. While an overall lull in storms is expected
overnight into Thursday morning, low chances for isolated to
scattered showers/storms will remain mainly in our north and
western counties. Another increase in storm activity/coverage is
expected Thursday afternoon and evening as another shortwave moves
across the Southern Plains and urges the stalled boundary
northward as a warm front. Best chances for precipitation continue
to remain across North Texas both days.

Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across a
majority of the region as 60-70+ dewpoints are expected region wide
alongside abundant instability and shear. At this time, large
hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern. Additionally,
PWAT values in excess of 1.5" (and in some areas in excess of 2")
will promote efficient rainfall producers during midweek. The
flooding threat will likely ramp up during this time, especially
in those areas that are still saturated.

With a dryline ever-present to our west, multiple impulses within
the overall mid-level flow will promote on-and-off isolated to
scattered storm chances through the rest of next weekend.
Currently, the bigger forecast concern for next weekend will be
the combination of heat and humidity on outdoor conditions. The
presence of the frontal boundary and rain chances will help to
keep temperatures slightly lower midweek, but temperatures will
rise back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with humid 60-70 degree
dewpoints, will promote increased afternoon heat index values in
the mid 90s to around 105 Friday through Sunday. Caution will
need to be taken with regard to outdoor activities during the heat
of the day this next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and gusty south flow will continue through the evening. MVFR
to IFR stratus will develop over the Hill Country and Southeast
Texas this evening, overspreading all of our TAF terminals before
sunrise tomorrow. Ceiling heights should start near 1000 ft AGL
with a few hours of IFR possible at ACT and other Central Texas
airports. Ceiling heights should slowly rise through the morning,
improving to VFR between 16-19Z for most. South flow 12-16 kts
with gusts around 22 kts is expected tomorrow.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop west of D10 between 22-00Z
tomorrow. If storms are able to develop, they would move E and
encroach on the D10 terminals between 01-03Z. Since the chance of
storms is only around 20%, we have opted to not include VCTS in
the TAFs...but we will have to keep a close eye on this potential
over the next 24 hours.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  89  76  89  71 /   0   5  10  40  50
Waco                74  89  76  89  74 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               69  86  75  86  68 /   0   5  10  50  60
Denton              74  88  73  88  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
McKinney            74  86  75  88  69 /   0   5  10  40  50
Dallas              75  89  76  90  71 /   0   5  10  40  40
Terrell             72  87  75  88  71 /   0   5  10  30  40
Corsicana           74  89  76  90  74 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              74  89  75  89  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       73  90  73  88  69 /   0  10  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$