494
FXUS64 KFWD 200039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
739 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Our stagnant weather pattern will continue as mid-level ridging
dominates the pattern early this week. South flow was slightly
stronger today, which drew higher moisture air north and nudged
dew points into the upper 60s this afternoon. Most locations
peaked with temperatures in the low 90s and heat index values in
the mid 90s. Since the pattern isn`t going to change much, more of
the same is expected tomorrow. Although another early-morning
stratus intrusion is expected, but stronger winds should preclude
fog development on the eastern periphery of the cloud deck. The
winds tomorrow afternoon should also be a little stronger than
today with most locations experiencing 12-18 mph sustained winds
with gusts near 25 mph in the afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this
upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist
overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have
made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave
disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east
into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our
northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near
the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave
disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into
Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to
make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but
exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this
time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it
too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The
NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region
before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with
moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and
ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid-
level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to
move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to
regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing
shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong
to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift
skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated
storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as
additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The
heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the
90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will
be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make
sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety
this upcoming weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow around 15 kts will continue this evening. Gulf
stratus should develop around 06Z in the Hill Country and move
into western Central Texas afterward. Expect an IFR to low MVFR
stratus deck to move over ACT near sunrise, lifting and scattering
as it moves east by mid-morning. Stronger winds should preclude
fog or substantial visibility restrictions. Gusty south flow and
VFR will prevail at all terminals tomorrow.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                71  89  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               69  89  71  87  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              73  90  74  89  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            72  89  74  87  75 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas              74  92  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             70  91  72  87  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           71  90  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              70  89  73  89  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       71  92  74  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$