Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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946 FXUS64 KFWD 110510 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ A weak front will remain somewhat stationary south of the region for the next few days, keeping temperatures slightly below normal in the near-term. Afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected Tuesday with a light east to northeast breeze. Wednesday will be a touch warmer as the front becomes diffuse and southeast winds return. The main weather feature of note is an upper low currently spiraling over the Texas Panhandle. This system will move southeast from the Panhandle into western portions of North Texas during the day Tuesday, generating a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region. The best rain chances will be along and west of I-35 in the vicinity of the upper low, though slight chance POPs will extend across the eastern counties where more isolated convection may occur. Storms should peak in the afternoon during maximum instability, a few of which may be strong with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain. Weak flow aloft and a lack of appreciable deep layer shear will keep the severe threat in check, though an isolated storm or two may over-achieve and produce quarter sized hail and a damaging wind gust. Slow storm movement may also lead to localized flooding. Activity will wane Tuesday evening with the loss of instability. The low will drop south through Central Texas Tuesday night and Southeast Texas on Wednesday as a mid level ridge re-strengthens over the southern Rockies, shifting most of the precipitation south of the forecast area on Wednesday. However, chance POPs will remain in place for areas generally south of I-20 where diurnally driven convection may still occur on the northern flank of the upper low. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 416 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ /Wednesday Through Early Next Week/ The slow-moving shortwave responsible for our current bout of unsettled weather will slide across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing one final round of showers and storms. While this will impart some directional shear, rather weak flow will maintain disorganized clusters. A few updrafts may be able to support small hail and an associated downburst, but the main concern with these plodding cells will be additional heavy rainfall reaggravating flooding issues. The trajectory of the feature will place the bulk of the activity in western portions of North Texas overnight into early Wednesday morning, then primarily across Central Texas during the daylight hours Wednesday. The event should come to an end in our southern zones by early Wednesday afternoon. A cut-off low that will spend most of the week spinning offshore of Southern California will finally move inland late in the week, eventually transiting the Rockies. This will tilt a ridge axis to our west into the Lone Star State, reducing cloud cover and steadily raising temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea breeze showers/storms by Sunday, but the bulk of the activity should remain to our southeast. The ridge will re- establish itself over the Southeast U.S. early next week, nosing an inverted trough into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Its associated daytime convection may reach as far as East Texas on Monday afternoon. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings will can be expected through much of the morning, eventually lifting to VFR around midday Tuesday. Spotty rain showers will be possible during the morning, then isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop near KACT and the DFW Metroplex around or shortly after 18Z. An overall increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through the mid to late afternoon hours, with activity waning around or shortly after 12/00Z. Per the latest CAM guidance, VCSH has been introduced for this morning, VCTS was pushed back to 18Z and will remain in the TAFs until 12/00Z. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 89 72 92 73 / 20 5 5 0 0 Waco 71 87 70 90 71 / 30 20 5 5 0 Paris 66 88 64 90 66 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 68 88 68 92 70 / 20 5 0 0 0 McKinney 68 88 68 92 70 / 10 5 0 0 0 Dallas 71 89 70 92 72 / 20 5 5 0 0 Terrell 69 88 68 92 69 / 10 5 5 0 0 Corsicana 71 88 70 92 71 / 20 10 5 5 0 Temple 71 88 71 91 71 / 30 20 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 69 88 69 92 71 / 30 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$