447
FXUS64 KFWD 081036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No changes needed to the current forecast. An outflow boundary
from convection well to the northwest has pushed into southern
Oklahoma this morning and a few showers have developed along it in
the last hour. These are expected to stay north of the Red River.
Other than some high clouds, no significant weather is expected
other than the heat. Highs will top out in the mid 90s with heat
indices near 100 degrees.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Sunday/

Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the night with
southerly winds around 10 mph and warm temperatures. Overnight
lows will only manage the mid 70s for most locations.

Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the Southern
Plains on Saturday with mostly sunny skies expected and
temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Southerly
winds will become breezy by afternoon thanks to modest mixing and
this should result in dewpoints falling into the low/mid 60s.
While it`ll be hot, heat index values should top out in the upper
90s to near 100, but breezy conditions will make it feel a bit
more tolerable.

The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward Saturday night into
Sunday which will result in slightly "cooler" conditions on Sunday
as forecast highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s. Weaker
winds and slightly higher dewpoints will make it feel a little
more humid. Farther to the north, stronger northwest flow aloft
and a passing shortwave through the Central Plains will result in
a weak cold front sliding southward through Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary but should
remain well removed from North Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/Sunday Night through Friday/

The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag south across
the Red River late Sunday night into Monday with an increase in
scattered showers and storms expected. Activity right along the
front will likely diminish in coverage and intensity through the
night while a complex of storms may be ongoing across far West
Texas. This activity would likely dive southward into a pool of
untapped instability and generally remain to our west. We`ll show
some increasing PoPs late Sunday night across our western counties
to account for this. On Monday, the frontal boundary should be
draped somewhere near the I-20 corridor, but mid and upper level
winds will be weak and there doesn`t appear to be any appreciable
large scale forcing for ascent. That being said, PWs will approach
2" and easterly low level flow through about 800 mb should result
in a weakly capped environment. This should support at least
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary. Better storm chances may actually occur late
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the global guidance suggests a modest
shortwave will spread southeast through the Southern Plains.
While the coverage of storms remains a little uncertain, strong
afternoon instability should lead to a cluster of thunderstorms
developing near the lingering frontal boundary and weak surface
low off to the northwest. This activity would spread southeast
into the region Tuesday evening/night. For now, we`ll have PoPs at
30-40% for this timeframe, but these may need to be increased in
future updates. Temperatures will remain suppressed a bit Monday
and Tuesday with increased cloud cover and rain chances, but
ridging will begin to overspread the region Wednesday through
Friday and we`ll see a corresponding increase in afternoon high
temperatures.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR is expected to prevail through the period with breezy
southerly winds this afternoon. No significant weather is
expected.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  93  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30
Waco                93  73  91  74  89 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               92  72  91  70  83 /   0   0   0  10  30
Denton              95  72  93  70  86 /   0   0   0  20  30
McKinney            94  72  92  70  86 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dallas              96  73  94  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30
Terrell             92  71  91  71  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           94  73  92  74  90 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              94  72  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       97  73  95  71  88 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$